Violence along the de-facto border in Kashmir is likely to continue toincrease and India and Pakistan are unlikely in the near future to makeefforts to resolve the conflict bilaterally, according to a report by theArmed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project.
The grim prediction is based on ACLED’s analysis of the events of 2020,which it called the most violent since 2016 when Kashmir witnessedmonths-long protests against India triggered by the killing of Burhan Wani.
Pakistan accused Indian troops of violating the agreement more than 1,600times. Dozens of soldiers and civilians were killed and scores wounded inthese firing incidents, which experts say were the highest since thesigning of the border agreement in 2003.
While the borders are likely to stay “hot,” the explosive situation insideKashmir could deteriorate further, said the ACLED report, which listsKashmir as one of the 10 conflicts to watch for in 2021 alongside otherssuch as Yemen, Myanmar, Ethiopia, and Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The report said there could be a surge in the activity of domestic andforeign militants in Kashmir because of “policy shifts” after August 5,2019, when India stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomous status anddivided it into two centrally ruled territories.
“Though the rise in militancy is attributed to Pakistan-based jihadigroups, disillusionment and anger caused by [India’s move on] August 5 hasenabled both domestic and foreign [militant] groups to recruit Kashmiris,”the report said.
It said another source of a possible spur in militant activity is newcitizenship and land laws that allow outsiders to purchase land in Jammuand Kashmir besides claiming residency. Before August 5, only Hindu, Muslimand Buddhist residents of the Muslim-majority region had these rights.
An ongoing exercise aimed at redrawing the local legislative assemblysegments will shift the power to the Hindu-majority Jammu region, thereport said. The resulting marginalization of Muslims “could in turn spurmilitant activity in the region,” it said.
*India government has ‘virtually destroyed any chances of peace’*
Experts in Kashmir echo these concerns. Noor Ahmad Baba, former head of thedepartment of political science at Kashmir University, told Anadolu Agencythat India’s Hindu supremacist government has virtually destroyed anychances of peace with the August 5, 2019 decision.
“On the one hand, Kashmiris have been thrown into an impossible situation.On the other, India tried to sideline Pakistan by the unilateral decisionof August 5, though Pakistan’s role in any Kashmir resolution is recognizedinternationally,” Baba said.
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“What is going to be most dangerous is the situation of fear in whichcommon Kashmiris find themselves right now. There are extraordinaryrestrictions in place and the situation can explode,” he added.
* ‘lawless law’ in Kashmir*
The August 5 decision has also disturbed regional stability, Baba said,referring to analyses that attribute last year’s India-China border clashesto the change of Kashmir’s political status. China had said the decisionwas “unlawful and void” and “challenged its sovereignty.”
Sociologist Farukh Fahim, who has studied the history of nationalisticmovements in Kashmir, said India had claimed August 5 as a solution, but“that is not happening.”
“Soon after August 5, there was talk of Kashmir as another Palestine in themaking. Muslims living in the neighborhood could be radicalized because ofthe worrying situation in Kashmir,” he told Anadolu Agency.
The ACLED report said that in 2020, India focused on deflectingopportunities for negotiation and tightening control of Kashmir whilepromoting pro-Indian politics in the region. At the same time, its forcesreportedly used the coronavirus lockdown to strengthen intelligencegathering and to intensify counter-militancy operations.
“Pakistan responded by continuously casting doubt on the bilateralcease-fire agreement with India by highlighting Indian violations and humanrights abuses in Kashmir at international diplomatic forums as well asinciting violence near the Line of Control,” it said.
With both countries “adopting non-cooperative militarized strategies,” thereport said, “bilateral attempts at resolving the Kashmir conflict remainunlikely in the near future.”