ISLAMABAD: The evolving trilateral cooperation among Turkey, Saudi Arabia,and Pakistan marks a significant turning point in Middle Eastern and SouthAsian security affairs, as these nations seek greater strategic autonomy inresponse to perceived declines in U.S. regional engagement. Analysts pointto the September 2025 Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between Riyadh andIslamabad as the foundation, which includes a collective defense clausetreating aggression against one as an attack on both, mirroring aspects ofNATO’s Article 5. This pact followed heightened Gulf anxieties afterreported Israeli strikes in Qatar, prompting Saudi Arabia to diversifysecurity partnerships beyond traditional reliance on Washington.
The potential inclusion of Turkey, with talks described as advanced and adeal deemed highly likely by informed sources, would expand this frameworkinto a more robust transregional alignment. Turkey brings substantialconventional military strength, a sophisticated defense industry producingdrones and naval systems, and extensive operational experience fromconflicts in Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. Combined with Pakistan’s nucleararsenal, ballistic missiles, and large manpower reserves, alongside SaudiArabia’s vast economic resources and diplomatic influence as custodian ofIslam’s holiest sites, the arrangement offers complementary capabilitiesfor deterrence and crisis response across the Middle East, South Asia, andparts of Africa.
This development reflects broader trends of multipolarity in the region,where U.S. influence has waned due to domestic priorities, inconsistentcommitments under successive administrations, and a reduced strategic focuson Gulf security. Saudi Arabia’s frustration with unmet expectations, suchas formal defense treaties or advanced arms sales without conditions, hasdriven Riyadh toward hedging strategies. The kingdom’s deepening ties withPakistan include military training programs, joint exercises, anddiscussions on converting loans into arms purchases like JF-17 fighterjets, underscoring economic and security interdependence.
Pakistan benefits immensely from this alignment, gaining financial supportamid economic challenges and reinforcing its strategic position throughdefense exports and nuclear deterrence guarantees. Islamabad’s role extendsbeyond bilateral ties, as evidenced by recent multi-billion-dollar armsdeals with Sudan and Libya, positioning it as a key supplier in regionalconflicts. For Turkey, joining enhances its influence in the Gulf andAfrica, diversifies partnerships amid strained NATO relations, and alignswith President Erdogan’s vision for inclusive regional platforms counteringinstability, terrorism, and external hegemonies.
Observers note that while the pact is framed as defensive and not targetedat specific adversaries, it inevitably affects regional balances involvingIran, Israel, and other actors. Concerns in Israeli and Western analyseshighlight risks of heightened instability, potential nuclear umbrellasextending to Gulf states, and complications for U.S. alliances with Turkeyand Pakistan. The alignment could challenge Israel’s military assertivenessand Iran’s regional network, while prompting responses from competitorslike the UAE or India.
Economic dimensions further strengthen the cooperation, with joint venturesin defense production, intelligence sharing, and contingency planninglikely outcomes. Saudi investments in Pakistan’s infrastructure andTurkey’s arms market access create mutual gains, fostering resilienceagainst global supply chain disruptions. This convergence signals a movetoward self-reliant Muslim-majority security architectures operatingoutside Western or Chinese orbits, potentially stabilizing volatile areasthrough coordinated responses.
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The implications extend to global geopolitics, as Washington may need torecalibrate its Middle East strategy amid shifting alliances. While noformal trilateral treaty has been signed yet, ongoing deliberations amongdefense ministers and foreign officials indicate momentum towardinstitutionalization. Such a bloc could promote stability by addressingshared threats like terrorism and maritime security in the Red Sea andIndian Ocean, though it risks escalating rivalries if perceived asexclusionary.
In summary, the Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan axis represents a pragmaticresponse to evolving threats and declining external assurances,fundamentally altering the Middle East’s power equilibrium toward greaterregional agency and multipolar dynamics.
Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/turkey-said-to-seek-membership-of-saudi-pakistan-defense-pact
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