ISLAMABAD – Pakistan is a nuclear power. It has the 6th largest army in theworld at 617,000 personnel approximately. To maintain the security of itsborders, Pakistani government maintains a large budget for its defensespending. Pakistan’s high ranking is fuelled by its active militarypersonnel, and a respectable fleet of aircraft, and tanks. It imports greatquantities of military weapons from Turkey and China and continues todevelop new technology to fight off enemy threats.
Pakistan is far more populous than Iraq, and it’s had sparring practicewith its sparring partner India. Which, be it noted, seems to be the moreagile and better muscled of the two.
Even so, Pakistan is just plain big. The US doesn’t have an army sufficientto do to Pakistan anything along the lines of what was done in Iraq.Neither does it have the shipping to supply a bigger force, if it had it.
Any war between Pakistan and the US would either be a nuclear war, or itwould be a messy tangle where the US would be lucky to just manage anorganized withdrawal from the whole area, and Pakistan would be lucky toavoid radically disproportionate casualties.
But some kind ofhypothesis just doesn’t make sense. What if Thailandinvaded Kenya? There is simply no prospect of any such thing happening.
Iraq was weakened by an eight-year conflict in the 80s against Iran; couplethat with its defeat in the First Gulf war which further eroded itscapability. Add a decade of sanctions and you will see why Iraq wasrelatively easy to defeat in the second Gulf War. Iraq had a population of25 million compared to Pakistan’s population 207.774 million.
You then have to consider the topography of Pakistan. It’s a ruggedmountainous country.America has spent the better part of the last 16 yearsin Afghanistan with little to show for its blood and toil.Invading apopulous relatively modern well equipped army who would be motivated indefending their homeland. It won’t be a cakewalk.The consequences would bea devastatingnuclearwar.
Besides the army every civilian of Pakistan knows who to shoot a gun so itis impossible for America to invade Pakistan. The local Pakistani peoplehave a hell lot of weapons, you cannot imagine how many guns and weaponsthe people have especially the people of Baluchistan, Peshawar and theNorthern Areas.
We have seen these locals in the past fight against India in 1947, wherethey successfully took over 40% of Kashmir; in 1965; where theysuccessfully helped the army defend Lahore, and most importantly theselocals took part on fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan
So having local people, especially in the north and northwestern areas thathave grown up with guns and have been taught about fighting and defendingthemselves and land, is a massive advantage for the country.
Russia and China, already greatly displeased at US’s military presence inAfghanistan, would no longer act as bystanders upon US’s assault onPakistan. Pakistan has deep military and political alliance with China,which goes much deeper than government level, and China has recently beenmaking a lot of investment in infrastructure in Pakistan (along withleasing some ports for up to a century).
The core asset of China in Pakistan is the Gwadar port, which has a lot ofopportunities for China. An assault upon Pakistan would mean that not onlyChina’s billions of dollars of investment in Pakistan has gone to thewolves, but also Gwadar port would now no longer be available for Chinesetrade and (possibly) naval base activities.
An assault upon Pakistan would thus not just result in stinging criticismfrom China but most probably a direct military reply from China, withpotential Russian support (as Russia engages NATO forces on other fronts,cutting them off from the Pakistani front). Iran would also get to covertlytest some of their military products against US, if it does not directlyenter the war in support of Pakistan.
And all of this would be in the optimistic assumption that this chain ofevents does not lead to an all out, full throttle world war with nuclearmissiles flying around the globe and the flames of hell do not starterupting everywhere in the form of telltale mushroom clouds. This wouldhave the potential to turn into World War 3.
In short, it will be a bloody mess for both countries: Pakistan with ahorrendous number of casualties and destroyed infrastructure, and U.S.suffering a lot in international prestige, foreign relations, a new wave ofrecession and potentially a civil war.
Written by: Shehroz Kaleem