The crash of the Indian Tejas fighter jet during the Dubai Airshow sent a shock through the global defence community and delivered one of the biggest setbacks to India’s indigenous combat aircraft programme in its entire history. Airshows are the most important platforms for defence marketing, and a live disaster before thousands of military officials, defence buyers and cameras worldwide instantly damages a fighter jet’s reputation. For India, the Dubai crash hurt far beyond the loss of the aircraft; it struck at the credibility of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programme, weakened the narrative of India’s rising aerospace capability, and shook confidence in Tejas as a reliable export product. Because this accident occurred during an aggressive export push by New Delhi, the reputational cost has been amplified. Two Decades of Development and Heavy Investment
The Tejas programme is one of the most prolonged and expensive indigenous fighter projects in Asia. Work began in the 1980s, the first prototype flew in 2001, and the Indian Air Force inducted the jet only in 2015. In total, more than two decades of engineering, testing and redesign went into the aircraft. India has poured billions of dollars into research, upgrades, manufacturing infrastructure and procurement commitments. The 2021 order of over 80 Tejas Mark-1A aircraft, followed by later contracts, placed the programme at the centre of India’s self-reliance campaign. Because of these deep financial and political investments, any failure is magnified. A crash at a global airshow therefore does not merely represent an isolated accident; it challenges the entire justification of the money, time and national prestige invested into Tejas. High Export Expectations Now Under Pressure
India has long hoped that Tejas would become its flagship defence export—an affordable, modern, single-engine multirole fighter for countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The government projected significant export earnings, and HAL showcased the jet extensively abroad, including at multiple airshows. Several countries were evaluating Tejas as a potential acquisition, and India’s diplomatic efforts increasingly included defence-industrial cooperation involving this aircraft. The Dubai crash has put these ambitions at risk. Even if the technical cause is eventually explained, defence buyers often make decisions based on perception and confidence. An aircraft that fails publicly in a demonstration flight triggers concerns about safety, reliability and maintenance culture. These concerns can stall or even cancel interest at a critical point in India’s export campaign. Technical vs Perception Damage
It is possible that the investigation may identify a fixable cause—perhaps a mechanical fault or a rare failure mode. However, in the defence market, perception often matters more than engineering. Buyers expect a combat aircraft to demonstrate flawless reliability in public displays. A single, high-visibility crash is enough to push cautious states toward competitors. Repairing perception takes far longer than fixing a technical flaw. For Tejas, which already had a history of development delays, engine issues, weight challenges and incremental capability upgrades, the crash reinforces doubts about whether the jet has truly matured into a stable production platform. Potential customers are likely to demand more independent verification, additional test flights, new safety assurances and revised delivery timelines—all of which complicate India’s export plans. Comparing Tejas with Pakistan’s JF-17
The Tejas and Pakistan JF-17 occupy the same global market segment: light, affordable, multi-role fighters for countries that cannot acquire expensive Western jets. But the programmes differ sharply in execution. The JF-17 followed a block-upgrade approach—Block I, II and III—which allowed Pakistan to begin exports early, refine the aircraft gradually, and build credibility with real customers. As a result, the JF-17 has achieved multiple export sales and has been used in various operational roles, strengthening its narrative as a proven, combat-experienced fighter. In contrast, Tejas has been slower to mature, slower to produce at scale and slower to enter service. Even before the Dubai crash, India had not secured any confirmed export orders for Tejas. After the crash, JF-17’s competitive advantage increases, because buyers naturally gravitate toward platforms that appear more stable, more widely adopted and more operationally tested. Combat Perception: JF-17 Benefited, Tejas Did Not
Pakistan has actively highlighted the JF-17’s combat performance, including its role in cross-border operations and its participation in high-intensity aerial skirmishes. Even though claims and counterclaims exist between rival states, the fact remains that JF-17 has been part of real combat narratives. This creates a perception of battlefield credibility. Tejas, on the other hand, has not participated in any known interstate combat engagement and has not acquired a “combat-proven” reputation. In the global fighter market, combat credibility is a major selling point. The Dubai crash therefore widens the perception gap: one programme appears combat-tested and export-successful, while the other appears accident-affected and still struggling for maturity. Impact on India’s Domestic Defence Plans
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The crash also complicates the Indian Air Force’s long-term force-planning. Tejas was designed to replace ageing MiG-21s and form the domestic backbone of light fighter squadrons. India’s production plans require steady output and a strong safety record to maintain confidence among pilots and political leadership. Any doubt about the aircraft’s reliability undermines operational morale and slows squadron induction. With the IAF already facing a shortage of fighter squadrons, a reputational blow to Tejas can pressure India into seeking foreign alternatives or accelerating other procurement programmes—both of which dilute the strategic value of indigenous industry. Global Market Dynamics Will Tilt Toward JF-17 and Others
In the immediate aftermath of the crash, risk-averse buyers are likely to pause or rethink any interest in Tejas. Competitors such as the JF-17 Block-III, South Korea’s FA-50, Brazil’s Gripen E and China’s L-15 will now have a stronger case in global tenders. Many defence ministries do not want to be the first export customer for an aircraft that recently suffered a public failure. The global fighter market is crowded and highly competitive; therefore, even a temporary dip in Tejas’s credibility can result in long-term market loss. The JF-17 programme, with its consistent export record and aggressive pricing, is positioned to directly benefit from the vacuum created by Tejas’s setback.
The Dubai Airshow crash is a serious and far-reaching setback for India’s Tejas programme. It impacts exports, military planning, diplomatic outreach and the credibility of India’s indigenous aerospace ambitions. It simultaneously strengthens the relative position of Pakistan’s JF-17 in the global market. Until Tejas can prove itself consistently reliable and operationally mature, buyers around the world will naturally lean toward alternatives—especially the JF-17, which now stands to benefit most from Tejas’s difficulties.
Writer is a Former Director FIA in Pakistan.