ISLAMABAD – July 2025: In a stunning reflection of internal decay and mismanagement, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has seen its fighter jet squadrons fall to just 29–31, marking the lowest combat strength in over six decades, according to recent Indian defence assessments.
The sanctioned strength for the IAF stands at 42 squadrons—deemed essential to manage the threat of a two-front war. However, under the 11-year rule of Narendra Modi, India has not only failed to modernize its air fleet, but has witnessed a dangerous erosion of its aerial deterrence capability.
Tejas Delays, Empty Rhetoric, and Aging Fleets
Despite repeated promises of self-reliance and defence modernization under the “Make in India” banner, the Indian defence manufacturing sector remains mired in delays, production failures, and bureaucratic mismanagement. The indigenous Tejas Mk-1A, touted as the future of the IAF, has seen zero deliveries since the signing of a deal in 2021 for 83 aircraft.
Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal V.R. Chaudhari recently issued a rare public rebuke, stating, “Not a single project is being delivered on time. Why should we promise something that cannot be delivered?”
As a result, India has been forced to retire legacy jets like the MiG‑21 without suitable replacements, hollowing out its operational strength in real time.
Pakistan’s Strategic Advantage Grows
While New Delhi stumbles, Pakistan’s Air Force continues to strengthen, both technologically and operationally. The induction of JF-17 Block III fighters, equipped with AESA radar and long-range missile systems, alongside the procurement of Chinese J-10C jets, has dramatically improved PAF’s strike and defence capabilities.
With 29–31 IAF squadrons currently operational—against a sanctioned 42—Pakistan now faces a weakened and overstretched adversary. The numerical and qualitative air superiority India once enjoyed is now significantly eroded.
This development enhances Pakistan’s deterrent posture, especially along the Line of Control and Eastern borders. Defence analysts note that the PAF’s efficiency, upgraded platforms, and combat readiness give it a comparative edge as India’s modernization falters.
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India’s Two-Front Threat Now a Two-Front Liability
India’s much-hyped doctrine of handling simultaneous threats from China and Pakistan now appears hollow. With no new Tejas jets delivered, a shortfall of 22 squadrons, and future projects like Tejas Mk-2 and AMCA still years away from operational status, New Delhi’s airpower is rapidly shrinking.
Even with the Rafale jets inducted in 2020–21, India could only field two squadrons, far short of bridging the widening gap in its force structure.
This collapse in air readiness poses serious questions about India’s ability to respond effectively to a regional crisis, let alone assert dominance in contested airspace.
Conclusion: Pakistan Positioned, India Unprepared
After more than a decade of rhetoric, the Modi government’s defence promises are unraveling. The Indian Air Force—once considered a dominant regional power—is now operating at Cold War-era strength, struggling with outdated platforms, missed deadlines, and incomplete squadrons.
For Pakistan, this shift is a strategic opening. As India’s defence preparedness continues to erode, Islamabad finds itself in a stronger regional position, both militarily and diplomatically.