NEW DELHI – Like other world capitals, India is observing with interest asJuly 25, the date for polls in Pakistan, draws closer. The polls are evenmore interesting as unlike in the past when power used to swing alternatelybetween Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) or the PakistanPeoples’ Party (PPP) led by the Bhuttos, there is now an emergence of aserious third player — cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, who is theleader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). While Khan was a player inthe past election as well, he was never a formidable contender for theprime ministerial post. With Sharif’s problems that may change this time.
In India, all those interested in events in Pakistan always had ampleinteraction with their leaders and exposure to the policies of the PML-Nand the PPP and even with religious figures like Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman,president of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. But the PTI remains a puzzle and asa result think-tanks are examining the party’s governance pattern in thenorth-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, where it has ruled for thepast five years, for clues as to what kind of governance it will provide ifit does come to power.
The other factor behind the PTI’s mystery is that Imran Khan has nopolitical constituency in India. In earlier years, the Gandhi family shareda bond with the Bhuttos in Pakistan and the security establishment hereviews Nawaz Sharif as a mature and credible face when it comes to relationswith India. Imran Khan, with his rabidly anti-India speeches, willcertainly not provide this kind of bonhomie and so if he does come to powerthere may be uncertain times ahead. But as India and Indians know too well,Imran has not been alone in his anti-India stance. In 2007, when the latePakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto visited India and met then primeminister Manmohan Singh, she complained about India’s ‘indifference’towards the restoration of democratic rule in her country and its‘coziness’ with military ruler Pervez Musharaf. Bhutto told Singh about thehelp she had provided to Rajiv Gandhi to stamp out militancy by takingaction against Khalistani secessionists in Punjab and complained that inreturn Rajiv Gandhi had failed to keep his promise to pull out troops fromSiachen. But soon after Bhutto’s meeting with Singh, then National SecurityAdvisor (NSA) M K Narayanan minced no words, saying the PPP was unreliable.He said the Bhuttos are democratic and show sympathy towards India as longas they are in Opposition but turn fiercely anti-India when they come topower.
It isn’t just Bhutto. Nawaz Sharif does invoke soft feelings in India. HisPunjab connection with Inder Kumar Gujral produced some positive results,leading to the setting up of the composite dialogue process in 1997. Soonafter his dismissal in 1999, Gujral disclosed that the PML-N chief hadhelped to avoid a big disaster in Kashmir, by helping to nab fiveterrorists who had procured Stinger missiles. According to Gujral, he hadwarned Sharif that if any aircraft was targeted in Kashmir it would betreated as an act of war. Better sense prevailed and these heavy armaments,left over by the US in Afghanistan, didn’t make their way towards Kashmir.
A year later, when India was feeling the isolation after nucleardetonation, Sharif agreed to receive AB Vajpayee who had then undertakenthe bus journey to Lahore. But the ‘ghost’ of the ‘Kargil betrayal’ remainsand despite the recent positive memories of PM Modi landing in Lahore toattend the marriage ceremony of Sharif’s grand-daughter, this ghost has yetto be exorcised.
With such feelings for Pakistan’s politicians and a realisation thatwhatever be the electoral outcome, India has to now deal with a governmentthat has the confidence of Pakistan’s actual power centre, the army,dealing with the likes of Imran Khan, becomes a little more predictable. Itis a given that any politician who wins this poll will be propped up by thearmy and a stable democratic structure for Pakistan seems a remotepossibility for the near future.
As a result, there is a strong impression gaining ground that New Delhineeds to have direct contact with Pakistan’s military rather than just withthe civilian government, a policy that the US, Afghanistan, and many otherwestern countries follow. Reports suggest that current Pakistan militarychief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has been giving vibes of late, showing aninclination to talk to India directly. Former RAW chief AS Dulat had alsorecommended recently that the NSA should open up channels directly withBajwa and even invite him to Delhi.
If India was to follow this policy, it may finally deal with Pakistan’srealities. New Delhi has tended to forget the fact that the middle classforms the ‘spinal cord’ in a parliamentary democracy likes ours. It forms21.36 per cent in India’s 125 crore population, while it is a mere 6.8 percent of the 25 crore population in Pakistan. Also, the army’s limited rolein India could also be attributed to the fact that the number of army menin India account for just 0.136 per cent of total population, while it isalmost 0.5 to 1 per cent in Pakistan. To ignore such a large population isnot possible, which besides an establishment contributes to the electorateas well.
With direct talks with the military on the anvil and growing anxiety onImran Khan’s policy statements, where he has promised to limit the US’role, India-Pakistan relations are set to go through another phase. IfImran really implements this policy after assuming office it will hitIndia’s interests in the region, especially in Afghanistan. What’s more,India also will go into election mode and new equations are once againlikely to be formed. Whatever the outcome, it is imperative that bothcountries adopt a wait and watch policy while keeping relations workable.
By: Iftikhar Gillani