ISLAMABAD – First generation warfare was about uniformed soldiers fightingwars with ‘massed manpower using line and column tactics’. This was back inthe 18th century. Second generation warfare used ‘rifled muskets andbreach-loaders’, ending the line and column tactics.
This was back in the 19th century. Third generation warfare is about threethings: ‘speed, stealth and surprise’, in order to ‘bypass the enemy’slines and collapse their forces from the rear’. The weapons of the thirdgeneration war are: fighter aircrafts, tanks and artillery.
In 2004, John Perkins in ‘Confessions of an economic hit man’ admitted that“We (economic hitmen) work very much like some of the hitmen for themafia-because like them, we are looking for a favour, except we do it on alarge level with governments and countries.”
In 2006, the US Army War College and the Canadian Land Forces Doctrine andTraining Centre got together at Queen’s University in Kingston, Canada. Twoconclusions were drawn at the strategic gathering. One: “Time honouredconcepts of national security and the classical military means to attainit, while still necessary, are no longer sufficient.” Two:
“War has changed. New organising principles require a new paradigm thatfacilitates change from a singular military approach to a multidimensional,multi-organisational… approach to deal more effectively with thecontemporary global security reality.”
Pakistan is in the midst of a ‘hybrid war’. A war is being waged; theweapons of war have changed. In essence, Pakistan is under an eightdimensional attack: (i) economic warfare; (ii) foreign support of domesticunrest; (iii) information warfare propaganda; (iv) diplomatic onslaught;(v) cyber attacks; (vi) offensive from irregular forces; (vii) operationsby Special Forces; and (viii) regular military operations.
The principal objective behind economic warfare is to weaken the targetcountry’s economy so that the target country is unable to allocatesufficient resources to its armed forces. Debt is being used as a weapon ofwar. International trade is being used as a weapon of war. ‘Unsoundeconomic projects’ are also the new weapons of war.
The 27-kilometre Orange Line, the light rail rapid transit system, isexpected to cost Rs162 billion. The estimated break-even is Rs175 perticket. At Rs20 a ticket, the Orange Line will lose Rs40 million a day orRs14 billion a year every year.
The Government of Pakistan, for instance, has guaranteed an annual Returnon Equity (ROE) of 34.49 percent for the Thar Coal Block-I Power GenerationCompany. The project cost is estimated at $767 million, of which $575million is debt. The interest rate used as the reference is the Inter BankOffer Rate (LIBOR) of 0.45 percent plus 450 basis points.
The Nandipur Power Project has gone from $329 million to $847 million.Neelum-Jhelum has gone from Rs15 billion to Rs414 billion. The NewIslamabad Airport has gone from Rs37 billion to over Rs105 billion.
This ‘hybrid attack’ on Pakistan has three dimensions: economic, politicaland societal. To be certain, our internal fault lines are being exploited –supported and financed – from across the borders. To be sure, to weaken thestate, critical institutions are being attacked. Yes, there isn’t anyphysical damage because hybrid warfare aims at ‘degrading the morale andwell-being of a nation’s citizens’.
Tanks, as weapons of war, are out. Unsound economic projects, as weapons ofwar, are in. Rifled muskets, as weapons of war, are out. Debt, as a weaponof war, is in. A hybrid war is being waged on Pakistan. There is no visiblebloodshed because the weapons of war have changed. Are we prepared?
Dr Farrukh Saleem: The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.
Email: farrukh15hotmail.com Twitter: saleemfarrukh