RIYADH – Saudi Arabia´s admission — after emphatic denials — over thekilling of critic Jamal Khashoggi is aimed at shifting the responsibilityaway from the powerful crown prince, whose position so far appearsunshaken, analysts say.
The kingdom sacked two top aides to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aswell three intelligence officials and arrested 18 Saudi suspects, in whatsome analysts called a scapegoating to quell the global outrage overKhashoggi´s killing.
After 17 days of vehement denials, the kingdom´s assertion on Saturday thatthe journalist was killed in a “brawl and fist fight” inside a Saudiconsulate in Istanbul — without revealing the whereabouts of his body –fell on sceptical ears around the world.
Saudi Arabia had previously roundly rejected allegations by Turkishofficials that Khashoggi was killed by Saudi agents who dismembered hisbody, insisting he had walked out of the consulate alive.
“Here is Saudi Arabia´s biggest problem,” said Michael Stephens, a MiddleEast expert at the Royal United Services Institute.
The inconsistences in the Saudi statements “now totally undermines theirposition,” he said.
Aside from the crisis of credibility, the international furore overKhashoggi´s disappearance prompted fevered speculation that the 33-year-oldprince, widely known as MBS, was at risk of being unseated from power byother royal family members.
But that danger appears to have subsided, analysts say.
The prince has amassed power to a level unseen by previous rulers aftersidelining potential rivals, with only 82-year-old King Salman — theprince´s father — in a position to oust him.
But the monarch issued a royal decree on Saturday to form a ministerialcommittee — headed by the prince — to revamp the kingdom´s intelligenceservices, indicating that he was keen for him to stay.
“Despite speculation that the crisis spells the end of Mohammad bin Salman,the recent announcements prove that the king still believes that thecurrent line of succession is suitable,” said Eurasia Group, a riskconsultancy.
The unprecedented crisis apparently prompted the king — who appears tohave handed over day-to-day affairs to MBS — to intervene, includinghandling a diplomatic outreach with Turkey and the United States.
The king also ordered the sacking of deputy intelligence chief Ahmadal-Assiri and royal court media adviser Saud al-Qahtani, both part ofPrince Mohammed´s inner circle.
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The decision to remove members of Mohammad bin Salman´s inner circle isdesigned to demonstrate real accountability in the process and distance thecrown prince from the murder,” Eurasia Group said.
But the dramatic moves early Saturday have yet to stem the tide of globalcondemnation of Prince Mohammed, whose image as a modernising Arab reformerhas been tarnished with his crackdown on dissent.
It has also tainted his reform program known as Vision 2030 — to preparethe kingdom for a post-oil era.
“Dismissing Saud al-Qahtani and Ahmad al-Assiri is as close to MBS as it ispossible to go,” said Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University´sBaker Institute in the United States.
“Interesting to see if these moves prove sufficient to end the crisis. Ifthe drip-drip of additional details continue, there´s no buffer to shieldMBS any longer.”
US President Donald Trump also appears to have thrown his weight behind theprince, swiftly endorsing Saudi Arabia´s explanation about the death ofKhashoggi and calling it an “important first step”.
But casting doubt on the claim that Khashoggi was killed during a fistfight, the Washington Post reported on Saturday that the CIA had listenedto audio recordings from Turkish officials that show he was brutally killedand dismembered by a team of Saudi agents.
US authorities have so far officially denied listening to any recordings.
Pro-government Turkish media have also repeatedly claimed that Khashoggiwas tortured and decapitated by a Saudi hit squad.
One Saudi agent identified by Turkey was said to be a frequent companion ofPrince Mohammed, three others were linked to his security detail and afifth is a high-level forensic specialist, according to The New York Times.- APP/AFP
