ISLAMABAD – As major powers move toward finalizing a deal in Afghanistan,anxiety looms large in India over the fate of its $3 billion worth ofinvestments and clout in the war-torn country. In the first annual budgetof his second tenure presented in parliament earlier this month, PrimeMinister Narendra Modi allocated 4 billion rupees ($58 million) fordevelopment work in Afghanistan.
But anticipating a setback in case of a hostile government taking overKabul, it slashed allocations for the construction of Iran’s Chabahar portto a mere 450 million rupees ($6.5 million) from 1.5 billion rupees ($21.8million) for the year 2019-20. Last November, the US had exempted the portfrom its sanctions regime against Iran. India had committed a capitalinvestment of $85.21 million for the development of two berths of the portand container terminals and the incurring of an annual revenue expenditureof $22.95 million over the next few years.
Keeping in view its unending hostilities with neighboring Pakistan,Chabahar port was hyped as a significant strategic point for India, notonly to connect to Afghanistan, but also to control access to Central Asiaand parts of Russia.
Left out of peace talks: Experts believe that the anxiety in India stemsfrom the fact that even after providing $650 million to $750 million ashumanitarian and economic aid, making it the largest regional provider ofassistance for Afghanistan, it has been left out of the peace talks. Addingto concerns is that Pakistan has joined the US, Russia and China to strikea deal with the Taliban.
Former Indian envoy to Afghanistan Rakesh Sood admitted that neither Indianor its ally the Afghan government has found a place at the negotiatingtable. He, however, warned that the conflict in Afghanistan will not end,because peace was never the real objective of the talks. Instead, they wereaimed at providing an excuse for American forces to leave the country.
Sood said Pakistan’s patient investment in the Taliban has paid off. “Afterthe US exits, it will declare an end to its longest war. But it will notend the conflict in Afghanistan because peace in Afghanistan was never thereal objective of the current flurry of talks. That is why the Afghans andIndia feel aggrieved,” he said. Former Afghan Ambassador Shaida Abdali alsobelieves that a way out has to be found to protect India’s 18-year-longefforts to strengthen civilian structures in his country. “India’sindifference to the evolving situation in Afghanistan will likely cost itin the long run,” he added.
A more worrying aspect for India is US Ambassador to Afghanistan John Bassdeclaring that Afghanistan’s presidential elections, scheduled for Sept.28, could be postponed until the peace process with the Taliban iscompleted. India has opposed this idea tooth and nail.
India opposes interim government, delay in election: A senior Indianofficial requesting anonymity said National Security Advisor Ajit Doval,during his recent talks with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, conve-yedin unequivocal terms that it was essential to inc-lude representatives oflegitimate government in talks.
Pompeo was also told about the importance of holding elections inAfghanistan. India has also conveyed its opposition to the proposal toinstall an interim government in case of the postponement of the election,to both the US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and to Russian officials, theofficial said. The spokesperson for India’s Foreign Office, Raveesh Kumar,said his country has always supported a national peace and reconciliationprocess in Afghanistan. However, he emphasized that such a process must beAfghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.
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“Any process should respect the constitutional legacy and political mandateand should not lead to any ungoverned spaces, where terrorists and theirproxies can relocate,” he said, expressing confidence that India’s point ofview shall be part of any peace and reconciliation process.
India’s former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said the prospects ofdemocratic gains in Afghanistan were being seriously hampered. He believesthat China, Pakistan and Russia have no stake in the process. Further, hecautioned against Afghan territory being used for anti-India activitiesafter the US troop withdrawal. “Central Asia can be destabilized by theTaliban activity in Afg-hanistan, which will expose us to the threat ofreligious extremism and terrorism from the region,” he said.
India’s other worry is that once the US vacates its occupation, China willbecome the dominant player in the Hindu Kush, with the prospects ofAfghanistan transforming into a hub of the Belt and Road Initiative. Formerdiplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar, who has also served in Afghanistan and Iran asIndia’s envoy, admitted that Indian policymakers failed to read the tealeaves correctly when it became apparent that the so-called Afghan surgeunder US General David Petraeus had ended inconclusively by September 2012.
“In the zero-sum mindset, Delhi overlooked that Pakistan has legitimateinterests in Afghanistan — no less than what India would have in, say,Nepal — and that by virtue of culture, tribal and ethnic affinity or sheergeography and economic and social compulsions, Afghans can never do withoutPakistan,” he said.
India misses ground realities: Further, while Delhi lavishly invested inAfghanistan, it had missed other ground realities, that massive corruptionwas undermining the government in Kabul and also did not realize that theUS and its allies were engaged in an unwinnable war. “They [Indian policymakers] did not realize that reconciliation with the Taliban was the onlyway out,” said the former ambassador.
Former Pakistan Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir also advised Indianstrategic community not to view Afghan peace initiative through an“outdated prism” of opposing the sharing of power with the Taliban. He wassure that the US was keeping India in the loop. “A constructive position byIndia will be helpful. Undue anxiety on being bypassed [in the peaceprocess] is unwarranted,” said Bashir, who has also served as Pakistan’senvoy in New Delhi. The four-party meeting on the Afghan Peace Process,held in Beijing on July 12, comprising China, the US, Russia, Pakistan andthe Taliban hammered out an eight-point agreement. The participantsunderscored their consensus on peacemaking and signaled their intention tospeed up the peace process to a final settlement.
All eyes on Trump-Khan meeting: US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad,who appeared upbeat at the outcome, tweeted that the negotiations shouldproduce a peace framework as soon as possible. His statement mentioningsetting up a future inclusive political arrangement acceptable to allAfghans is being interpreted in India as the US giving the go-ahead to aninterim arrangement in Kabul, deriding the incumbent elected government.
