ANKARA – Since he took office in 2003, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hasgiven a name to each stage in his consolidation of power in Turkey. Firsthe called himself the apprentice; then the journeyman; and latterly themaster. Now, he says a new five-year term would elevate him to the role of“grandmaster” and help him make Turkey one of the world’s top powers by thetime the republic marks its centenary in 2023.
The most powerful and polarizing leader in Turkish history, Erdogan, 64, isstanding for re-election in a presidential vote on Sunday that could cementTurkey’s switch from a parliamentary to a presidential system, which wasnarrowly approved in a referendum last year. He would take an office withvastly expanded powers, in a system that critics have compared to one-manrule. His opponents have promised a return to a parliamentary system with adistinct separation of powers.Play Video4m 51s
The “Erdogan generation” goes to the polls
Young Turkish voters will decide on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’sfuture. If he is re-elected, the political system will change.ADVERTISEMENT
Opinion polls have put Erdogan several points ahead of his closestcompetitor in the presidential race. However, he would need to win morethan 50 percent of the votes for an outright first-round victory and thatlooks less likely. Analysts say the outcome could be decided in a secondround runoff on July 8.
Erdogan, who has never lost an election, is this time around facing morerobust opposition figures and parties cooperating with each other in ananti-Erdogan alliance. For the first time ever, Turkey will elect a newparliament at the same time, but his Justice and Development party’selection campaign has appeared a little flat and uninspired, focusing onpast achievements and making odd campaign promises such as the creation ofneighborhood “reading houses” offering free tea and cakes. Analysts evenspeak of the possibility of Justice and Development losing its majority inParliament.ADVERTISEMENT
“(Erdogan) remains by far the most popular politician in Turkey,” saidSinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based EDAM think tank. “He is still the onethat is the most likely to be elected, but it is not a foregone conclusion.”
Erdogan called the presidential and parliamentary elections more than ayear earlier than scheduled amid signs that the Turkish economy may beheading toward a downturn. Despite strong growth figures, inflation andunemployment have hit double-digit figures while the lira has lost some 20percent of its value against the dollar since the start of the year.
Additionally, the polls are being held as nationalist sentiment is highfollowing a Turkish military operation into a Syrian border enclave earlierthis year that drove away Syrian Kurdish fighters that Turkey brands asterrorists. Turkey has recently intensified air raids on a suspectedKurdish rebel stronghold in northern Iraq, a move that could further rallyvotes for Erdogan.
The most powerful leader since the Turkish republic’s founder, MustafaKemal Ataturk, Erdogan remains popular in Turkey’s conservative and piousheartland. Many see in him a strong leader who stands up to West, whobrought stability, oversaw an infrastructure boom, who improved health careand relaxed strict secular laws, for instance allowing women to wearIslamic headscarves in schools and government offices.
His critics say Erdogan, in pursuit of power, is turning the NATO countrythat once hoped to join the European Union into an increasinglyauthoritarian state. They accuse him of curtailing democracy and freedom ofspeech, of jailing opponents, including students, journalists andactivists, especially following a failed military coup in 2016. A state ofemergency declared after the coup attempt has led to the arrests of some50,000 and seen more than 110,000 dismissed from government jobs.
“Erdogan is the man to deliver,” Erdogan’s adviser Ilnur Cevik told TheAssociated Press in an interview, countering accusations that Erdogan is inpursuit of greater powers.
“Erdogan does not have absolute power — he has the affection of the people…”
The allied opposition — which includes the center-left and pro-secularRepublican Peoples’ Party, the center-right Good Party and the smallIslamic Felicity Party — has vowed to roll back Erdogan’s presidentialsystem and to improve relations with allies and the European Union. Alsochallenging Erdogan is the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, whosecharismatic leader is running for president from jail.
Erdogan’s AKP has formed an alliance with the far-right NationalistMovement Party. Already in control of a majority of Turkey’s media,Erdogan’s government has changed electoral rules, raising fears that theelections may not be fair. The changes allow government officials tocontrol ballot stations, for ballot stations to be moved to new locationson security grounds and for ballot papers lacking an official stamp to becounted as valid.
Ismail Buyukcakar, who played soccer alongside Erdogan in the early 1970sin Istanbul’s Camialti team, recalls a young man who had leadershipqualities and oozed confidence. “He is a good fortune for Turkey. We needto take advantage of this good fortune,” Buyukcakar said. “In my opinion,Turkey needs our president for another 20 years.”