WASHINGTON – The Saudi assassination of a US-based journalist has putPresident Donald Trump in an intractable bind.
Does he preserve a close US ally and accept whatever Riyadh says about themurder?
Or does he risk a rupture and embrace the conclusion of the CentralIntelligence Agency that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, thecountry’s de facto leader, ordered the killing?
The US president has refrained from attacking Prince Mohammed ever sinceJamal Khashoggi, a veteran Saudi journalist who had been writing articlescritical of Riyadh for The Washington Post, was killed and dismembered inthe Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2.
With Riyadh under international pressure, the Saudi prosecutor announcedthe arrest of 21 suspects and charges against 11, saying five will face thepossible death penalty.
At the same time, Washington announced sanctions on 17 Saudis allegedlyinvolved, including two top aides of the prince.
Neither side though named the mastermind of the operation. But, accordingto the Post and The New York Times, the CIA is certain that it was PrinceMohammed himself.
That puts the US president in a bind. He has formed a deep alliance withthe Saudis over a mutual dislike for Iran and a shared interest in keepingglobal oil prices steady.
Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has sealed the relationship through aclose personal connection with the prince, known as “MBS.”
For that reason, until now, Trump has appears loathe to finger PrinceMohammed for Khashoggi’s murder, saying he hasn’t seen the evidence. Hesaid on Sunday that he will likely only be briefed on the CIA conclusionsby Tuesday.
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“Trump has only two options,” said Michele Dunne, a Middle East expert atthe Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“He can agree with the intelligence evaluation and go along with whatCongress wants to do, which means indicating publicly or privately that theUS will no longer work with MBS.”
Or, she said, he can go against all that and try to protect the WhiteHouse’s relationship with the prince.
In either case, the risks are high.
Severing relations with the son of King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is anextreme step, but would not necessarily mean a complete bilateral rupture,said Dunne.
“Saudi Arabia is not MBS, and MBS is not Saudi Arabia.”
Yet it risks spurring changes in the hierarchy of the Saudi royal family,with the outcome unpredictable for Saudi-US relations.
On the other hand, if Trump refuses to condemn Prince Mohammed, an angryCongress could take action that would damage the relationship, such asfreezing arms sales to the Middle East giant.
Senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who is close to the president,does not mince his attacks on the prince over Khashoggi’s death.
“I believed from day one that 15 people, 18, whatever the number was, theydon’t get on two airplanes, go to Turkey and chop a guy up in the consulatewho’s a critic of the crown prince without the crown prince having knownabout it and sanctioned it,” Graham told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.- APP/AFP
