ISLAMABAD: Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thanihas issued a stark warning at the World Economic Forum in Davos 2026 thatthe Middle East “could explode at any moment” due to deepening rifts withinthe Gulf Cooperation Council, particularly the intensifying confrontationbetween Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen. Thestatement, delivered amid ongoing discussions dominated by regionalinstability rather than economic agendas, underscores growing fears thatthe breakdown in Saudi-Emirati relations could trigger broader instabilityacross the Red Sea region, Sudan, Somalia, and beyond. Analysts view thisas a pivotal moment highlighting the fragility of Gulf unity post the 2017Qatar blockade resolution.
The rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, once close partners in the Yemenintervention launched in 2015 against Iran-backed Houthis, erupted publiclyin late December 2025 when UAE-supported Southern Transitional Council(STC) forces seized control of strategic southern provinces includingHadramawt and al-Mahra. These areas, rich in oil resources and borderingSaudi Arabia’s southern frontier, represented what Riyadh deemed anexistential security threat. Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes onDecember 30, 2025, targeting alleged UAE-linked weapons shipments atMukalla port, followed by a 24-hour ultimatum demanding UAE forces withdrawfrom Yemen entirely.
Data from regional security reports indicate the STC offensive covered over40 percent of southern Yemen’s territory at its peak, threatening toformalize partition and control key maritime chokepoints like the Babal-Mandab Strait. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, supported byRiyadh’s military presence, swiftly counterattacked, reclaiming positionsand forcing the STC into retreat by early January 2026. The STC leadership,including prominent figure Aidarous al-Zubaidi, reportedly fled to AbuDhabi with alleged Emirati assistance, while the group announced itsdissolution or significant weakening under Saudi pressure.
The United Arab Emirates announced the withdrawal of its remainingcounterterrorism contingents from Yemen shortly after the ultimatum,marking a tactical retreat but not necessarily an end to influence.Accusations persisted, with the Saudi-aligned Yemeni government claiming onJanuary 19, 2026, that the UAE operated secret prisons at Riyan airbasenear Mukalla, allegations firmly denied by Abu Dhabi. These claims, airedduring a Saudi-arranged media tour, further intensified public rhetoric,with Saudi state media outlets like Al Ekhbariya warning of”transgressions” and reserving rights to safeguard national interests.
Broader implications extend far beyond Yemen. Saudi Arabia has initiatedefforts to counter UAE footholds in the Red Sea arena, including economicand military engagements in Sudan and Somalia, where Abu Dhabi has builtports and bases. Reports suggest Riyadh views Emirati actions as promotingfragmentation to expand influence, contrasting with Saudi priorities ofunified structures and de-escalation to support Vision 2030 economicreforms. Economic competition in OPEC+ oil policies, trade hub rivalry, andleadership dynamics between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAEPresident Mohammed bin Zayed compound these strains.
Qatar’s position has aligned more closely with Saudi Arabia in thisdispute. Doha issued statements supporting Yemen’s unity and territorialintegrity, describing Saudi and Gulf security as “inseparable” from itsown. Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani conducted phone diplomacy withboth leaders in early January 2026, positioning Qatar as a potentialmediator drawing from its role in resolving the 2017 blockade. Whileavoiding direct condemnation of the UAE, Qatar’s messaging emphasizesdialogue to prevent escalation, reflecting a calibrated approach tomaintain relations with both parties.
The Davos 2026 atmosphere reflects heightened anxiety, with delegationsfrom Riyadh and Abu Dhabi openly at odds. The Qatari Prime Minister’swarning resonates amid stalled Yemen peace efforts, humanitarian crisesaffecting millions, and risks to global shipping routes. Experts note thatwithout internal Gulf reconciliation—potentially mediated by neutral actorslike Oman or Qatar—the antagonism could endure longer than the Qatarcrisis, which took over three years to resolve.
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This development marks the sharpest public fracture in Gulf relations sincethe Qatar blockade ended in 2021, shifting former allies toward rivalrywith profound consequences for regional power balances and anti-Houthicoalitions.
Source:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/01/20/saudi-arabia-uae-yemen-red-sea
Council, Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed
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