ISLAMABAD: Recent intelligence assessments reveal that India’s NationalSecurity Adviser Ajit Doval has undertaken several informal visits toAfghanistan since mid-2025, signaling a deliberate shift in New Delhi’sapproach toward the Taliban administration. These discreet engagements aimto establish common ground with Kabul, primarily to diminish Islamabad’slongstanding influence in the region. The development, reported byspecialized intelligence sources, highlights evolving geopoliticalcalculations amid strained Pakistan-Taliban relations and broader regionalpower dynamics.
The reported visits by Ajit Doval mark a notable departure from India’searlier cautious stance following the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. While NewDelhi has historically viewed the Taliban with suspicion due to perceivedPakistani patronage, recent interactions suggest pragmatic outreach.Analysts note that these informal trips focus on security assurances,counterterrorism cooperation, and economic opportunities, reflectingIndia’s intent to secure its interests without formal recognition of theregime.
A key driver behind this engagement appears to be the deterioration inPakistan-Taliban ties. Cross-border tensions along the Durand Line,including clashes involving the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, have createdfriction. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of harboring militants, while Kabulresists Islamabad’s pressure on border fencing and recognition issues. Thisrift provides India an opening to position itself as an alternativepartner, potentially reducing Pakistan’s strategic depth in Afghanistan.
Intelligence reports indicate that New Delhi is navigating these talkscarefully to avoid antagonizing China, which maintains significant economicstakes in Afghanistan. Beijing’s concerns over attacks on its interestshave led to demands for improved security from the Taliban. India’sapproach seeks to accommodate these ambitions while advancing its ownobjectives, including access to Central Asian markets via Afghan corridors.
India’s broader Afghanistan policy has evolved through humanitarian aid,infrastructure support, and diplomatic channels since 2022. The reopeningof a technical mission in Kabul, later upgraded to embassy status in late2025, underscores growing engagement. High-level visits, such as those byTaliban officials to New Delhi, have facilitated discussions on trade,connectivity, and mutual security concerns.
The strategic rationale for these informal Doval-led contacts centers oncountering perceived threats from Pakistan-backed groups. India has longexpressed worries about anti-India activities originating from Afghan soil.By building direct ties with the Taliban, New Delhi aims to securecommitments that Afghan territory will not be used against it, addressinglongstanding security vulnerabilities.
Regional observers point to the timing of these developments amidheightened India-Pakistan tensions in 2025. India’s military responses toprovocations have reshaped calculations in Kabul. The Taliban, seekingdiversification beyond traditional patrons, appear receptive to Indianovertures for economic and diplomatic support.
Economic dimensions also play a role in this outreach. India’s pastinvestments in Afghan infrastructure, including roads and power projects,offer leverage. Taliban interest in reviving these assets aligns withIndia’s goal of enhancing connectivity through Chabahar Port, bypassingPakistani routes for Central Asian trade.
Despite progress, challenges persist. The Taliban regime’s human rightsrecord, particularly restrictions on women, complicates India’s engagement.New Delhi balances pragmatic interests with international norms,emphasizing humanitarian priorities and regional stability over ideologicalalignment.
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The reported Doval visits underscore a calculated realignment in SouthAsia’s security architecture. As Pakistan’s influence wanes, India’sdiscreet diplomacy could reshape alliances. This evolution reflects broadertrends where states prioritize strategic necessities amid fluid regionaldynamics.
These engagements, while informal, carry implications for counterterrorismefforts. Shared threats from groups like IS-KP necessitate cooperation.India’s push for assurances could contribute to broader regional stability,though success depends on mutual trust and sustained dialogue.
In summary, Ajit Doval’s mid-2025 Afghanistan visits represent a proactiveIndian strategy to counterbalance Pakistani influence through directTaliban engagement. This approach, grounded in intelligence-drivenassessments, highlights the fluid nature of South Asian geopolitics.
Search for an image of Ajit Doval or India Afghanistan diplomatic meeting.
Source:https://www.intelligenceonline.com/asia-pacific/2025/10/09/india-seeks-taliban-deal-to-counter-pakistan,110531879-art
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