Diplomatic relations between the two countries are strained as multipleissues threaten established political alliances in the Gulf region. The rowcould result in new allies in the Far East.
The recent visit by the Indian chief-of-staff to Saudi Arabia has markednot only a major step in the countries’ military dialogue — but more so, ithas sent a strong signal to nearby Pakistan: Riyadh’spolitics bear undeniable signs of increasingly becoming a balancing actbetween India and Pakistan.
The meeting marked another milestone in increasingly tense relationsbetween the Middle East economic superpower Saudi Arabia and itsnuclear-equipped — but financially inferior — ally Pakistan.
“The Pakistani-Saudi relations have certainly been complex all along butsince 2015, when the Pakistani parliament banned the Pakistani militaryfrom participating in the war in Yemen, their relations with Saudi Arabiahaven’t become any easier,” James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the Middle East Institute inSingapore and author of the acclaimed political blog ‘The Turbulent Worldof Middle East Soccer’link,tells DW.Multiple layers of discontent
The military conflict in Yemen is not the only region that has causeddisputes between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. In February, Pakistan hadexpected Riyadh to support them in dealing with Indialinkoverthe Kashmir crisis — which in May has since resulted in renewed clashesbetween India and Pakistan. In particular, Pakistan had requested asupportive meeting with the Council of Foreign Ministers of theOrganization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). After Saudi Arabia turned downthe request, Pakistan repeated its demand, which in turn resulted in Riyadhcalling in a $1 billion loan.
Consequently, Pakistan repaid the loan with a new loan — but thistime, coming from China.
It is no surprise that China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the country’sdecision to lend $1 billion is welcomed by Pakistan’s Prime Minister ImranKhan, who is in need of new allies.
Experts, however, believe that Beijing is also in a diplomatic state ofwariness as it needs Saudi oil. Jeremy Garlick, author of “The Impact ofChina’s Belt and Road Initiative: From Asia to Europe” and an assistantprofessor at the University of Economics in Prague, is convinced that Chinawill “play a waiting game at this stage and try not to become involved inMiddle Eastern politics for as long as possible.”Saudi Arabialink
Expert James Dorsey agrees: “I don’t think that the Saudis can reallyafford to make a choice between India and Pakistan, while the Pakistaniswouldn’t want to be dependent on China either.”An ongoing balancing act
Saudi Arabia has significant investments in India, which is also a majorbuyer of Saudi oil. This explains Saudi Arabia’s dwindled support forPakistan’s stance on Kashmir. “But to be fair, the Saudis were very helpfulto the Pakistanis when they needed it,” says Dorsey.
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The initial $1 billion loan was part of a $6.2 billion package whenPakistan needed cash to help counteract the country’s sky-rocketing tradedeficit and declining foreign reserves in November 2018. According toPakistani media, the package included $3 billion in loans and a $3.2billion oil credit facility that was, however, suspended in May 2019.
While Saudi Arabia is the regional superpower, it also needs Pakistandue to its proximity to Afghanistan and rival Iran, says Dorsey. Moreover,Pakistan is home to the world’s largest Shiite minority.
On the other hand, Pakistanis form the second-largest group of immigrantsin Saudi Arabia.
Despite the fact that Riyadh has already sent back tens of thousands of(mainly male, blue-collar) workers, the money the remaining immigrantstransfer back home to Pakistan has a significant impact on the Pakistanieconomy.Open and closed doors for new allies
In addition to these sources of tension, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Khan hastold regional news outlets that he was pressured by two Arab nationsto “normalizerelations with Israellink.”Those who know the region’s geopolitics know that Khan is likely referringto the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
DW contacted the Pakistani ambassador to Germany for comment but receivedno reply.
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