The relations between three Asian nuclear neighbors – Pakistan, India, andChina – plummeted to new depths in 2020, with experts foreseeing no“detente” next year either.
The tumultuous year saw the first deadly clash between Indian and Chinesearmies in the last 45 years in the mountainous Ladakh region in June. Theties between Pakistan India also remained at odds amid frequent clashesalong with the disputed Jammu and Kashmir border.
The military standoff followed New Delhi’s unilateral decision to separateLadakh from disputed Jammu and Kashmir and revoke the Himalayan region’ssemi-autonomous status in August last year, a move vehemently opposed byBeijing and Islamabad.
Ladakh region which borders China and Pakistan serves as the world’s only“nuclear trijunction.”
In another rare development in November Pakistan released a dossieraccusing India of “actively planning, promoting, aiding, abetting,financing and execution of terrorist activities” on its soil.
India, however, denied the charges and accused Islamabad of “patronizing”terrorism.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Pakistan’s former foreignsecretary said tensions between China and India owed origin to New Delhi’sAugust 2019 move of carving out a separate centrally administered Ladakhregion.
“The year 2020 witnessed continued tensions between Pakistan and India asthe latter remained in a disengagement mood, and did not agree to hold adialogue on the outstanding issues,” he said.
The year also saw nearly daily clashes between the two militaries along theLine of Control (LoC) — a de facto border that divides the picturesqueJammu and Kashmir between the two nuclear neighbors.
Dozens of soldiers and civilians from both sides were killed, while scoresof others were injured in the clashes, which have taken a toll on theinhabitants of bordering areas.
Relations slide
Islamabad, over the past 12 months, left no stone unturned to raise allegedhuman rights violations in the disputed region, particularly after NewDelhi revoked constitutional special status.
Jammu and Kashmir — a Muslim majority region — is held by Pakistan andIndia in parts but claimed in full. A small silver of the territory is heldby China.
Several pro-freedom groups have been fighting Indian troops for eitheruniting with Pakistan or independence.
“The slide which began in India Pakistan relations in August 2019, worsenedin 2020, and it is unlikely to improve shortly,” said Sameer Patil, afellow at the Gateway House, a Mumbai-based think tank.
“Pakistan’s frequent attempts to highlight the Kashmir issue at theinternational level have only caused further Indian intransigence,” he said.
“Pakistan’s continued greylisting by the Financial Action task Force — aglobal money-laundering watchdog — has given confidence to India that itsstrategy of pressuring and isolating Islamabad is working,” he added.
Islamabad has been on the global money-laundering watchdog’s radar sinceJune 2018, when it was placed on its gray list for terrorist financing andmoney laundering risks after an assessment of the country’s financialsystem and security mechanism.
Another Pakistani former Foreign Secretary, Salman Bashir said that Indian“obsession” with Pakistan witnessed new escalatory measures by“intensifying active hostilities across the LoC and propaganda blitzextinguishing hopes for regional cooperation”.
He said that during the year Pakistan remained “mired” in domesticpolitical squabbles, trying to fix governance and facing the brunt ofglobal power play with attendant regional implications.
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Both Indian and Pakistani analysts do not see any possibility of a thaw inrelations in near future.
US tilt towards India
Chaudhry, who heads the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS), anIslamabad-based think tank, said since India does not seem to change itspolicies towards Kashmir and neighbors, there is hardly any scope forimprovement in relations.
Further, he said, the recent US tilt towards India has emboldened New Delhito continue its “belligerent” approach towards its neighbors.
Rajiv Ranjan, who teaches international relations at Shanghai Universitymaintains that India-China relations were also at the “lowest point”.
“India-China engagement is at its lowest point today. And, I expect thatfrequent clashes [between the two sides] will be a new normal not onlyalong the undefined border since border infrastructures improved butinherent competition in the region and beyond to shape the regional andglobal politics,” he said.
He added that the current deterioration in the bilateral engagement betweenthe two countries is resultant of a combination of unsettled boundaries andstrategic antagonism. He asked countries to restructure dialogue mechanismsto achieve a stable engagement.
“Both countries must restructure dialogue mechanisms, settle thefoundational irritants of their bilateral relationship and realigninterests if they want to achieve any meaningful and stable engagement,”said Ranjan.
Beijing push for globalism
Chaudhry, Pakistan’s former foreign secretary, observed that Beijing islikely to continue to push for “globalism”, and “multilateralism” with aneconomic emphasis, mainly on its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
“India has long been opposing the BRI, and likely to continue the samepolicy in years to come,” he said.
Bashir, who also served as Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India from2012-14 described 2020 as a “transformational” year as establishedassumptions about states, societies, and interstate conduct in South Asiawere challenged.
“India, suffered immense reputational loss, unprecedented economic slump,social turmoil and lost its credentials as a secular democracy with rule oflaw and a modicum of enlightened values and justice, “said Bashir, who alsoserved as Pakistan’s top diplomat in China.
“Pakistan deepened its relations with Russia and China and intensifiedefforts to stabilize Afghanistan, “he said.
Bashir also referred to Islamabad’s crucial role in the ongoingreconciliation process in Afghanistan, which aims to end Washington’slongest war in recent history through a political settlement.
“Three geographically contiguous nuclear powers — India, China, andPakistan — must learn to live with each other and devote themselves tohigher ideals and cooperation for development, “he added.
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