NEW DELHI – Does it make sense for India to get words of help from asuperpower called the United States of America that no longer behaves likeone? Does it make sense for India to have hostile neighbours when it hasthe world’s fastest-growing major economy? Should it do something thatcould exacerbate tensions that affects the mood of investors?
Tough challenges face Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Ministry ofExternal Affairs and the Ministry of Defence after last week’s horrendouscar bomb attack by Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists on a convoy of CentralReserve Police Force jawans at Pulwama in Kashmir, in which at least 40 menwere martyred.
It is fine to light candles to mourn the victims and cry out in outrageagainst Pakistan’s help for jihadi terror groups on its soil and fine forthe army to carry out retaliatory operations as it happened in theaftermath of the attack. But one harsh reality remains: the world haschanged so much, that a painstakingly built-up diplomatic advantage thatIndia had in cornering Pakistan after the 9/11 attacks in New York by AlQaeda in 2001 and then the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai in 2008 has beenconsiderably eroded by the flow of events since then.
What this means is that even as India reserves the right to secure itsterritory from attackers and terrorists, it is a lonely game in which ithas to walk diplomatic tightropes all around.
Pakistan is neither the failed state it is often painted to be, norisolated in the international community. While Indians lit candles to mourndead jawans, Prime Minister Imran Khan in Islamabad was playing chauffeurto Saudi Arabia’s crown princelink-MohammedBin Salman, whose team pledged $20 billion investments into Pakistan – andthat is about Rs 140,000 crore! Contrast that with the fact that the annualexport from Pakistan to India affected by New Delhi withdrawing the MostFavoured Nation status to Pakistanlinkisless than $ 0.5 billion.
China, which has rejected India’s attempts at the United Nationslinktodeclare Jaish-e-Mohammed’s chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist despiteoverwhelming evidence is clearly not helping India in containing terrorism.Please also recall that Pakistan’s then army chief and later miltarydictator Pervez Musharraf was in Beijing when the Kargil war broke outlinkin1999 – under his supervision.
Last month, Pakistan and China decided to widen the scope of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)link,including expansion of activities in the Gwadar Port in Balochistan. CPECpasses through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and involves investments estimatedat $62 billion – and that is worth about Rs 440,000 crore! The Chinesedragon won’t spew that kind of money without a quid-pro-quo. Beijing’smandarins now have a clear access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan.
All this is happening while the US is busy pulling its troops out ofAfghanistanlink.
India now has to deal with a new geopolitical reality in which Washingtonis less interested in policing the planet while China is helping Pakistan.Some of that Saudi money coming into Pakistan may well trickle towardsjihadi groups. Islamabad is cleverly hedging its bets by keeping both theSaudis and the Chinese happy. Failed state, did someone say?
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Meanwhile, as India warms up to Iran, Saudi Arabia is slamming Tehranlinkforblaming it for an attack last week that killed 27 members of Iran’s eliteRevolutionary Guard. Tehran, after blaming the Saudis, now blames Pakistan.It is all very messy but it is vital to note the attack took place on theIranian side of Balochistan.
Officially, everybody condemns terrorism but ground realities are different.
India now has the lever of trade to tackle Beijing. China is the leadingmaker or exporter of smartphones sold in India and its investors are hot inIndia’s digital economy. The RSS-affiliated Swadeshi Jagran Manch haswritten to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to seek a ban on Chinese companiesin Indialink.India imported Chinese goods worth $68 billionlinkin2017 and its exports to China was about $16 billion.
India’s best bet could stem from the fact that the US and China are also inthe middle of a trade war while Beijing badly needs help to boost itssagging economy. But India also gets investments into India from China,with billion-dollar-valuation startups like PayTm gaining significantly. Itis a complicated chessboard, but trade seems to be the best lever India canuse to make China see reason.
Indians lighting candles for Pulwama victims may well pause a moment tothink of the dragon in the neighbourhood. The government could do with somehelp.
By: Madhavan Narayanan
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