ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Airports Authority has once again extended theclosure of the country’s airspace to all Indian-registered aircraft,including those owned, operated, or leased by Indian airlines as well asmilitary flights. This latest restriction, announced through a fresh Noticeto Airmen (NOTAM), will remain in effect until January 23, 2026. Thedecision, issued in mid-December 2025, continues a pattern of monthlyextensions that began following heightened bilateral tensions in April2025. Aviation experts suggest that further renewals could effectivelyprolong the ban throughout the entire year 2026, potentially establishingit as the longest such prohibition in the history of India-Pakistanrelations.
The origins of this prolonged airspace closure trace back to a deadlyterror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, in April 2025, which claimed26 lives. India attributed responsibility to elements allegedly supportedby Pakistan, leading to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and aseries of retaliatory measures. In response, Pakistan imposed the initialairspace ban on April 24, 2025, prohibiting Indian aircraft from transitingits territory. This action was quickly mirrored by India, which closed itsairspace to Pakistani carriers starting April 30, 2025. The reciprocalrestrictions escalated amid a brief but intense military conflict in earlyMay, further entrenching the divide.
Since the initial imposition, the Pakistan Airports Authority has renewedthe ban on a monthly basis, with the latest extension covering the Karachi(OPKR) and Lahore (OPLR) Flight Information Regions. As of late December2025, the cumulative duration exceeds eight months, surpassing previoushistorical episodes such as the 2019 Pulwama crisis and the 1999 Kargilconflict, where closures were significantly shorter. Analysts note that ifthe pattern persists into 2026 without diplomatic intervention, therestriction could become unprecedented in duration, reflecting deepergeopolitical strains between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
The economic ramifications for Indian carriers have been substantial andmounting. Air India has estimated potential losses approaching $600 millionif the ban extends for a full year, primarily due to increased fuelconsumption and extended flight durations on routes to Europe, the MiddleEast, North America, and Central Asia. For instance, flights from northernIndia to destinations in West Asia now require detours over the Arabian Seaor through alternative corridors, adding up to several hours per journey.Other operators, including IndiGo and SpiceJet, face similar challenges,with some routes extended by three hours or more, leading to higheroperational costs and scheduling complexities.
In contrast, the impact on Pakistan’s aviation sector remains relativelycontained. Pakistan International Airlines and other domestic carriers haveadapted with minimal disruption, as their international operations arelimited compared to Indian counterparts. Pakistan continues to forgorevenue from overflight fees previously collected from Indian airlines, butofficials maintain that national security considerations outweigh financiallosses. The prolonged ban has also raised concerns about Pakistan’s imageas a reliable transit corridor for global aviation, potentially deterringfuture partnerships and route planning by international carriers.
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the underlying tensions have so far yieldedno breakthrough. The May 2025 conflict, which involved missile exchangesand significant military engagements, ended with a ceasefire, but airspacerestrictions have persisted as a symbol of unresolved grievances.Historical precedents indicate that such bans are often linked to broaderbilateral issues, including water disputes and security concerns. Observersanticipate that any easing of the restrictions would require substantialconfidence-building measures from both sides.
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The continued enforcement of the airspace ban underscores the fragility ofregional connectivity in South Asia. With no immediate resolution in sight,the aviation industry on both sides braces for further uncertainty into2026. The situation highlights how geopolitical frictions can imposelasting economic burdens, even in an era of globalized air travel.
Airspace Ban
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