ISLAMABAD: India’s strategic presence in South and Central Asia appears to be diminishing markedly in recent months, raising questions about the evolving balance of power in the region. The loss of key overseas facilities and access points has prompted analysts to examine the implications for New Delhi’s geopolitical ambitions. This contraction comes against the backdrop of heightened competition from neighbouring powers and external sanctions, creating uncertainty over India’s ability to project influence beyond its borders.
The most recent setback involves India’s involvement in Iran’s Chabahar Port, a project long viewed as critical for bypassing Pakistan to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia. Reports from early 2026 indicate that India has effectively wound down its operational commitments at the Shahid Beheshti terminal following the reimposition of US sanctions in September 2025. Although a conditional six-month waiver was granted by the US Treasury in October 2025, valid until April 26, 2026, New Delhi has transferred its committed funds—estimated at USD 120 million—and seen key personnel resignations, signaling a strategic withdrawal to mitigate risks from potential tariffs and penalties.
This development follows the earlier cessation of India’s military presence at Tajikistan’s Ayni Airbase, which ended in 2022 after the bilateral lease agreement expired. The Ayni facility, developed with significant Indian investment since the early 2000s, served as a logistical hub for operations related to Afghanistan. Its closure, reportedly influenced by regional dynamics involving Russia and China, removed India’s primary foothold in Central Asia, leaving limited alternatives for monitoring and engagement in the region.
In South Asia, India’s influence has encountered additional hurdles. The political transition in Bangladesh, marked by the ouster of a government perceived as aligned with New Delhi, has led to strained relations and accusations of interference. This shift has allowed greater space for other powers to expand economic and strategic ties with Dhaka. Concurrently, territorial frictions along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh persist, with Chinese forces maintaining control over areas India claims, further complicating New Delhi’s northern frontier posture.
These cumulative setbacks reflect broader challenges in India’s neighbourhood policy. The Chabahar project, envisioned as part of the International North-South Transport Corridor, aimed to enhance connectivity to landlocked states while countering rival infrastructure initiatives. However, US sanctions linked to Iran’s policies have constrained progress, despite periodic exemptions. The port’s strategic value lies in its location outside the Strait of Hormuz, offering a route for trade with Afghanistan and beyond, yet operational limitations have reduced its immediate utility.
Experts observe that these developments may accelerate the reconfiguration of regional power dynamics. With reduced access in Central Asia and uncertainties in South Asia, India’s capacity to shape outcomes in neighbouring countries faces limitations. The interplay of sanctions, bilateral expirations, and shifting alliances underscores the complexities of maintaining extended influence in a multipolar environment.
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The contraction also highlights the need for recalibrated strategies. India’s engagements in the region have historically relied on infrastructure investments and security partnerships to secure access routes. As traditional footholds diminish, attention may shift toward alternative corridors and diversified partnerships to sustain connectivity objectives.
Source: https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ports-shipping/indias-strategic-withdrawal-from-chabahar-port-as-us-sanctions-loom/126541523
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