ISLAMABAD – A RAND research shows the following consequences of the USpullout ftom Afghanistan:
• Other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces also leave.
• US and other international civilian presence is sharply reduced.
• External economic and security assistance diminished.
• The government in Kabul begins to lose influence and legitimacy.
• Power moves from the center to the periphery.
• Responsibility for security increasingly devolves to regional militiasand local warlords.
• Regional states back rival claimants to national power.
• The Taliban loses interest in negotiating peace with the United States.
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• The Taliban extends its control over territory and population butencounters resistance.
• Afghanistan descends into a wider civil war.
• Civilian deaths rise sharply and refugee flows increase.
• Extremist groups, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, gain additional scopeto organize, recruit and initiate terrorist attacks against US regional andhomeland targets.
“Visible moves by US civilian agencies toward sharp draw down willaccelerate among Afghans a crisis of confidence in the durability of theirgovernment and security forces,” the research shows.
The research concludes that it has become a common view that there is nomilitary solution to the war in Afghanistan, but this is, at best, onlyhalf true.
