ISLAMABAD – Control of the geostrategic province in the state of Jammu andKashmir will give India access to energy resources while limiting the reachand ambitions of Pakistan and China.
In the existing South Asian geopolitical setting, the disputed Kashmirvalley does not possess any significant geostrategic value for its threeneighbouring powers of India, Pakistan and China, among which the state issandwiched. Since the division of British India in 1947, Delhi has kept itseye on the “strategically indispensable” province of Gilgit-Baltistan, partof the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, and it is in this regionalhinterland that the fate of the Indian subcontinent is being reworked.
Soon after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ring-wing governmentunilaterally annulled Kashmir’s special status, India’s top political andmilitary leadership made repeated assertions about “reclaiming”Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan province from itsarchrival.
On 12 September, Indian army chief General Bipin Rawat said that India’s”next agenda” was to “retrieve” Pakistan-administered parts of Kashmir fromthe “clutches” of Islamabad and make it part of India. “The governmenttakes actions in such matters. The institutions of the country will work asper the orders of the government. The army is always ready,” he said.
Earlier, a statement issued on 10 September by the secretariat of IndianVice-President M Venkaiah Naidu said that “bilateral talks with Pakistanwould be held only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)”. He made similarproclamations when speaking at an event on 28 August, after the annulmentof Kashmir’s autonomy.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also asserted that if talks were tobe held with Pakistan, “they would be about PoK and not on any otherissue”. Indian Union Minister Jitendra Singh further claimed that the Modigovernment’s “next agenda” is “retrieving parts” of Kashmir under Pakistanand merging them with India.
“It is not only my party’s commitment, but it was also part of aunanimously passed resolution of the Parliament in 1994. This was passed bythe Congress-led government of [former prime minister] Narsimha Rao,” Singhsaid.
In August, Singh urged the redrawing of Indian boundaries with Pakistanthat included not only PoK but also Gilgit-Baltistan. “We must assert morestrongly and consistently our claim on Gilgit and Baltistan,” wrote India’sformer foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, in his column for the India Todaymagazine, adding: “Why not invite and give prominence to dissidents andactivists from these areas? After all, they are technically our owncitizens.”
Islamabad has red-flagged these assertions by top Indian politicians andpolicymakers on annexing Pakistan-administered Azad (Free) Jammu andKashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan.
“The Pakistani army has solid information that they [India] are planning todo something in Pakistani Kashmir, and they are ready and will give a solidresponse,” Prime Minister Imran Khan told the Pakistan National Assembly onthe country’s Independence Day. He added that its army was preparing torespond to “anticipated Indian aggression” in Pakistan-administeredKashmir. “The time has come when we will teach [India] a lesson.”
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The importance of Gilgit-Baltistan
Situated at the confluence of three great mountain ranges – the Himalayas,Karakoram and Hindu Kush – Gilgit-Baltistan is a vital geostrategic site.The region borders Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to the west,Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor to the northwest, China’s Xinjiang provinceto the east and northeast, AJK to the southwest and the 480km Line ofControl (a military control line serving as a de facto border) runningalongside Indian-controlled Kashmir in the southeast.
The province effectively provides Pakistan with direct land access to Chinathrough Xinjiang via the Karakoram Highway. Beijing’s ambitious $60 billion(about R875 billion) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructureprogramme – a vital component of China’s transcontinental Belt and RoadInitiative – passes through the region, which is considered the main accesspoint between the neighbouring countries.
Through the CPEC project, Islamabad has become China’s gateway to theworld’s energy market and it has assumed a centrality in Beijing’s foreignpolicies. Unlike most countries that welcomed the CPEC project, India hasexpectedly voiced its unhappiness over the CPEC, conveying to Beijing thatthe project was “unacceptable” as it passed through the disputed region ofAJK and Gilgit-Baltistan, which Delhi claims as its own territory.
Gilgit-Baltistan, in the current geostrategic alignment, cuts India fromthe mineral and energy-rich markets of Central Asian countries includingUzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, as well as Afghanistan. Islamabadhas long refused to allow Delhi transit to these Central Asian states,further annoying India as it aims to tap such energy resources for itsgrowing fuel demands. Delhi also perceives growing Sino-Pak cooperation, asevidenced by the CPEC, as an attempt to contain Delhi’s clout as a regionalpower.
India initiated its Connect Central Asia policy in 2012 to counter thegrowing Sino-Pak influence in the region, and sought to engage Iran andAfghanistan to circumvent Pakistan and gain direct access to the markets ofCentral Asia. Delhi, especially, increased its bilateral cooperation withTehran to access oil supplies, and invested in the development of Iran’sChabahar Port as a counter to Pakistan’s critically important Gwadar port.The development of the port was further aimed at opening a route tolandlocked Afghanistan, where Delhi has developed security and economicties.
However, with the latest United States sanctions against Iran and pressurefrom Washington to cut all fuel imports from Tehran, Delhi has been lefthigh and dry. To counter what they see as China’s geostrategic advancementsthrough its CPEC programme, many Indian policymakers have long recommendedthe military takeover of Gilgit-Baltistan and the rest ofPakistan-administered Kashmir.
By capturing the contentious territory, they say, Delhi can establish “adirect land link to Afghanistan and thence to the Central Asian Republics,both of which are increasingly falling into the Chinese sphere of economicand political influence”. -AllAfrica
