ISLAMABAD: Saudi Arabia is poised to reshape Red Sea security dynamics byfinalizing a new military coalition with Egypt and Somalia, a move analystsview as a direct effort to sideline the United Arab Emirates’ growingregional footprint. This emerging alliance, focused on enhanced defensecooperation and maritime security, comes at a time when tensions betweenRiyadh and Abu Dhabi have reached unprecedented levels over influence inYemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. The development raises questions aboutthe future of Gulf unity and the balance of power in one of the world’smost critical waterways.
The catalyst for this shift appears rooted in Somalia’s abrupt terminationof all security, defense and port-related agreements with the UAE in earlyJanuary 2026. Mogadishu’s cabinet cited compelling evidence of actionsundermining national sovereignty, territorial integrity and politicalindependence, including the alleged unauthorized transit of Yemen’sSouthern Transitional Council leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi through Somaliterritory to facilitate his escape to Abu Dhabi. This incident, combinedwith broader accusations of UAE support for separatist entities andinterference in regional ports, prompted Somalia to sever longstandingties, creating an opening for alternative partnerships.
Saudi Arabia has long positioned itself as a staunch supporter of Somalia’sfederal unity and its struggle against Islamist groups like Al-Shabaab,though previous engagement remained largely diplomatic and humanitarian.The proposed coalition marks a significant escalation, representingRiyadh’s first direct attempt to bolster Somalia’s armed forces througharms transfers, training programs and intelligence sharing. SomaliPresident Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to visit Riyadh shortly to sealthe agreement, which prioritizes strategic collaboration on Red Seasecurity alongside deeper military interoperability.
Egypt’s inclusion in the pact aligns with Cairo’s longstanding concernsover threats to its Red Sea access and Nile water security, particularlyamid Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions and external recognitions of Somaliland.Egypt has expanded military goals in Somalia following Israel’scontroversial recognition of Somaliland in late 2025, viewing it as apotential strategic encroachments near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Thetrilateral framework builds on existing coordination, including Egypt’sdiplomatic backing of Mogadishu and shared opposition to fragmentation inthe region.
This coalition forms part of a broader “Red Sea Axis” led by Saudi Arabia,incorporating strategic partners like Turkey and other littoral states suchas Eritrea and Sudan. The axis emphasizes sovereignty and stability,countering what Riyadh perceives as an opposing bloc involving UAE-backednetworks in Somaliland, Ethiopia and Yemen. Recent maritime pacts,including Somalia’s ratification of agreements with the Saudi GeneralTransport Authority, integrate federal ports like Laasqooray ascounterweights to UAE-dominated facilities in Berbera and Bosaso.
The Red Sea remains a vital global trade artery, handling around 12 percentof world commerce through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where Houthi attacksand smuggling routes have heightened vulnerabilities. Persistent threatsfrom Iran-backed groups and militant coordination across Yemen and Somaliaunderscore the urgency of coordinated defense. Saudi Arabia’s initiativeseeks to address these challenges through layered surveillance, joint navaloperations and economic investments, reducing reliance on externalcoalitions like the US-led Prosperity Guardian.
Underlying the move is the deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE,once close allies in regional interventions. Disputes over Yemen’s SouthernTransitional Council, support for factions in Sudan and approaches toIsrael have fractured their partnership. Saudi officials have accused theUAE of destabilizing actions, while Riyadh pushes allies to limit AbuDhabi’s influence. This realignment risks further polarizing the Gulf, withimplications for OPEC+ cohesion and broader Arab consensus.
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Observers note that while the coalition strengthens federal authority infragile states like Somalia, it may intensify proxy competitions in theHorn of Africa. Somalia’s decision to annul UAE deals has sparked debatesover compliance in semi-autonomous regions like Puntland and Jubaland,which maintain economic links with Abu Dhabi. Nonetheless, the pact signalsRiyadh’s ambition to lead a status quo coalition prioritizing traditionalsovereignty over fragmentation-oriented strategies.
The evolving security architecture reflects shifting geopoliticalpriorities in a post-Houthi escalation era, where Red Sea stability tiesdirectly to economic diversification goals in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Asnegotiations advance, the coalition could mark a turning point in regionalalignments, potentially stabilizing key chokepoints while testing thelimits of Gulf rivalries.
Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/saudi-arabia-in-talks-with-egypt-somalia-on-military-coalition
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