ISLAMABAD: The Horn of Africa and Red Sea region have become a focal point of intense geopolitical competition, where emerging alliances threaten established maritime security balances. Recent developments, including Israel’s historic recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on December 26, 2025, have intensified debates on whether India lIndia should follow suit. This move by Israel, the first UN member to grant such recognition, has sparked discussions on countering the growing convergence among Türkiye, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia in Somalia. For India, formally recognizing Somaliland represents not merely a diplomatic gesture but a vital strategic necessity to safeguard critical sea lanes, enhance partnerships with stable regional actors, and mitigate the expanding operational footprint of adversarial networks.
The strategic logic behind India’s consideration of Somaliland recognition centers on the region’s pivotal maritime chokepoints, particularly the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden. These passages handle a substantial portion of global trade and energy shipments vital to India’s economy. Somaliland’s de facto stability since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, complete with its own governance, currency, and democratic institutions, contrasts sharply with Somalia’s persistent fragility. Analysts argue that recognition would allow India to integrate into a network comprising Israel, the UAE, Ethiopia, and potentially the United States, fostering intelligence sharing, maritime security cooperation, and operational access to counter threats from unstable environments.
In parallel, Türkiye, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia are converging toward a flexible security framework in the Horn of Africa, often characterized as interest-driven hedging rather than a rigid NATO-style pact. Türkiye maintains its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu and provides extensive training and equipment to Somali forces. Pakistan has deepened military ties through agreements offering naval training and technical assistance to Somalia, while Saudi Arabia supplies financial and logistical support. This trilateral dynamic, reinforced by recent draft defense agreements, enables sustained deployments and exploits Somalia’s weak governance to extend influence, posing direct challenges to Indian, Israeli, and Emirati interests in the Red Sea.
The convergence elevates Pakistan’s role from a bilateral adversary for India to a key node in a broader network. Türkiye’s pro-Pakistan orientation institutionalizes extended reach beyond South Asia, while Saudi Arabia’s resources ensure long-term sustainability. Collectively, this configuration compresses India’s strategic options, threatens Israeli security margins near Yemen, and disrupts Gulf balances favoring the UAE. Reports indicate ongoing talks to formalize trilateral defense pacts, with potential expansions involving other actors, further constraining freedom of maneuver in a region marked by Houthi disruptions and external power projections.
India’s cautious stance so far reaffirms support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as stated by the Ministry of External Affairs following Israel’s recognition. However, experts contend that Somaliland’s reliability as a partner offers India a gateway for trade, particularly through the Berbera port, which serves landlocked Ethiopia and counters Chinese dominance in nearby Djibouti. Recognition would signal a shift toward assertive maritime statecraft, aligning with India’s Indo-Pacific ambitions and enabling structured engagements in trade, counterterrorism, and security.
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The battle for influence in the Horn of Africa thus pits emerging counter-alignments against consolidations exploiting fragile states. India’s potential recognition of Somaliland could stabilize key chokepoints, reinforce perceptions of Somaliland as a viable actor, and integrate New Delhi into reliable networks. Failure to act risks allowing the Türkiye-Pakistan-Saudi axis uncontested operational advantages, with long-term implications for regional balance and India’s energy security.
Source: https://news.az/news/-india-vs-turkiye-pakistan-alliance-the-battle-for-the-horn-o