ISLAMABAD: The United States appears to have adopted a more measuredapproach towards Iran following weeks of heightened rhetoric and threats ofmilitary intervention in response to Tehran’s crackdown on nationwideanti-government protests. President Donald Trump, who had repeatedly warnedof “very strong action” if the Iranian regime continued lethal forceagainst demonstrators, stated on January 14 that he had receivedinformation indicating the killings had stopped, describing the situationas one to “watch and see.” This shift comes against the backdrop of intensediplomatic pressure from regional allies and explicit Iranian warnings ofretaliation against American military assets.
The recent developments mark a potential temporary reprieve in the volatileUS-Iran dynamic, which has been strained since the June 2025 12-day warinvolving US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranianofficials have consistently maintained that any American attack wouldprompt swift counterstrikes on US bases across the Middle East, a positionreiterated by senior figures including Parliament Speaker Mohammad BagherGhalibaf. These threats have reportedly prompted Tehran to communicatedirectly with Gulf states hosting American forces, urging them to dissuadeWashington from escalation. Such warnings have amplified concerns amongregional partners about the broader consequences of conflict.
Gulf Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,have expressed reluctance to support US military action against Irandespite longstanding rivalries. Analysts note that these states prioritizeregional stability to safeguard their economic diversification efforts andtourism ambitions, viewing potential Iranian retaliation or regimeinstability as risks to their own security. Reports indicate that Gulfgovernments have lobbied the Trump administration privately and publicly topursue diplomacy over confrontation, highlighting the ripple effects thatcould disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and destabilize thewider region.
The US decision to withdraw some non-essential personnel from key bases,such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, reflects precautionary measures amidthe uncertainty. While officials describe these movements as routineprecautions rather than indications of imminent strikes, they underscorethe sensitivity of the situation. The Pentagon has previously presentedPresident Trump with various options, ranging from cyberattacks to targetedstrikes on Iranian security apparatus, but recent statements suggest apreference for monitoring developments before committing to kinetic action.
Iranian authorities, facing one of the most severe domestic challengessince the 1979 Islamic Revolution, have signaled openness to dialogue whilerejecting any perceived dictation from Washington. Foreign Minister AbbasAraghchi has emphasized that negotiations on the nuclear program couldresume on the basis of mutual respect, amid reports of backchannel contactsthrough intermediaries like Oman. These efforts aim to de-escalatetensions, though Iranian red lines on uranium enrichment, ballisticmissiles, and regional alliances remain firm, complicating prospects forsubstantive progress.
Regional allies’ concerns extend beyond immediate military risks tolong-term strategic implications. A potential US strike could exacerbateIran’s internal bandwidth constraints, where security forces are alreadystretched by protests and sporadic militant activity in border regions.This strain might inadvertently empower opposition elements or proxygroups, further complicating the regional security landscape. Gulf states,having pursued détente with Iran in recent years, appear wary of actionsthat could reverse these gains or provoke asymmetric responses affectingenergy markets.
The apparent softening in US rhetoric follows Tehran’s claims of regainedcontrol over the protests and assurances against further executions, whichTrump cited as influencing his current stance. However, skepticism persistsregarding the veracity and permanence of these reports, with human rightsgroups documenting ongoing repression. The administration’s emphasis ondiplomacy as the “first option” while retaining military readinessillustrates a calibrated approach, balancing pressure on Tehran withavoidance of unintended escalation.
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The situation remains fluid, with the coming days critical in determiningwhether this represents a genuine de-escalation or merely a tactical pause.Ongoing monitoring of Iran’s response to domestic unrest and its engagementwith diplomatic channels will shape Washington’s final decisions. Theinvolvement of Gulf allies in advocating restraint highlights theinterconnected nature of Middle Eastern security dynamics, where unilateralactions carry significant multilateral consequences.
Source:https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14
Tags: Iran, United States, Donald Trump, Gulf States, Middle East
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