*KABUL – The Afghan conflict could overtake Syria as the deadliest conflictin the world this year, analysts say, as violence surges 17 years after theUS-led invasion.*
The grim assessment contrasts sharply with the consistently upbeat publicview of the conflict from NATO´s Resolute Support mission in Kabul, andunderscores the growing sense of hopelessness in the war-torn country.
It suggests that US President Donald Trump´s much-vaunted strategy forAfghanistan is, like those of his predecessors, failing to move the needleon the battlefield, observers said, as a generation of Americans born after9/11 become old enough to enlist.
“The soaring casualties in Afghanistan and the potential endgame in sightin Syria… could leave Afghanistan as the world´s deadliest conflict,” saidJohnny Walsh, an Afghanistan expert at the United States Institute of Peace.
“Most years have become the new ´most violent year´. This is continuallygetting worse.”
The Syrian conflict — which began a decade after Afghanistan´s — hasclaimed the lives of more than 15,000 people so far this year, according tothe Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Graeme Smith, a consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFPsome indications “suggest the Afghan war is on track to inflict more than20,000 battle deaths in 2018” — including civilians and combatants.
“That could exceed the toll of any other conflict, possibly even the war inSyria,” he added.
It would be a record high for Afghanistan, according to the respectedUppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) in Sweden, which put the total numberof deaths on all sides of the conflict at 19,694 in 2017.
Afghan civilian deaths have already hit a record 1,692 in the first sixmonths of 2018, a recent UN report showed.
Interior ministry deputy spokesman Nasrat Rahimi estimated 300-400 “enemyfighters” were killed every week, but would not provide figures forcivilians or government forces.
Data for casualties suffered by Afghan security forces are not available tothe public after Washington last year agreed to Kabul´s request to classifythe numbers.
Before the blackout, according to figures published by the US SpecialInspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), there were morethan 5,000 each year.
Most analysts believe that number understates the reality on the ground.This year´s death toll for government forces could be “horrific”, Smithsaid.*More troops, more fighting *
The total death toll has been rising steeply since 2014, UCDP figures show,the year NATO combat troops pulled out, leaving Afghan forces with theresponsibility for holding back the resurgent Taliban.
This year, the violence has been fanned by long-delayed parliamentaryelections scheduled for October 20 and renewed efforts to engage theTaliban, Afghanistan´s largest militant group, in peace talks.
The Taliban have made significant battlefield gains, and the smaller butpotent Daesh group, which first emerged in the region in 2014, has alsoramped up attacks.
Despite the bloodshed, General John Nicholson, who until recently was thetop US and NATO commander in the country, insisted last month that Trump´sstrategy, which includes the deployment of thousands of additional USforces and increased air strikes, was working.
US Forces spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Pete Lupo told AFP: “US ForcesAfghanistan is committed to being open and telling the truth about thiswar.”
More troops means more fighting and therefore more casualties, Walsh toldAFP — but otherwise the military situation “remains generally a stalemate”.
SIGAR data also suggests Trump´s plan has made little progress on thebattlefield.
The Taliban and other insurgents control or influence 14 per cent ofAfghanistan´s 407 districts, the watchdog said in July — unchanged fromlast year, when Trump unveiled his strategy.
The government, meanwhile, controls or influences 56 per cent — down from57 per cent in August 2017.
The rest of the country is considered “contested”.*‘A background of violence’*
Despite the growing violence, an unprecedented ceasefire between thegovernment and Taliban in June ignited fresh hopes of peace.
Efforts to convince the militants to negotiate an end to the war wouldcontinue, analysts said.
“The Afghan and US governments realise that a peace process is the only wayto bring an end to all the violence and the broader war,” said MichaelKugelman of the Wilson Center.
US officials met with Taliban representatives in Qatar in July, and anothermeeting could be held this month.
“That´s how most talks happen — against a background of violence andfighting,” a Western official told AFP.
Cold comfort for Afghans worn down by decades of war. – APP/AFP