ISLAMABAD: The brief but intense military confrontation between India andPakistan in May 2025, triggered by a terrorist attack in Kashmir andIndia’s subsequent Operation Sindoor missile strikes, ended in a ceasefireafter four days of exchanges. Many Indian narratives portrayed theoperation as a decisive demonstration of military superiority, with claimsof significant damage to Pakistani targets and minimal losses on theirside. However, the rapid post-conflict surge in Pakistan’s arms exports hasraised unexpected questions among Indian defence analysts, who are nowpublicly asking Prime Minister Narendra Modi why a supposedly defeatedadversary is attracting substantial international orders for its weaponry.
The conflict, lasting from May 7 to May 10, involved missile and dronestrikes, with India targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure inPakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab province. Pakistan responded withcounter-strikes, leading to casualties on both sides and heightened nuclearrisks. While India emphasized the operation’s precision and success inneutralizing threats, Pakistan highlighted the resilience of its forces andthe performance of its indigenous platforms, particularly the JF-17 Thunderfighter jet. The ceasefire, mediated through direct militarycommunications, restored a fragile calm, but the event left lingeringdebates over who truly gained strategic advantage.
In the months following the ceasefire, Pakistan’s defence exports havereached unprecedented levels, with contracts reportedly worth nearly $10billion finalized in 2025 alone. Key deals include a multi-billion-dollaragreement with Libya’s National Army for JF-17 fighters, Super Mushshaktrainers, and other equipment, valued at over $4 billion. Additionalarrangements involve Azerbaijan, with deliveries of JF-17 Block IIIvariants, and ongoing negotiations with Sudan for aircraft, drones, and airdefence systems worth around $1.5 billion. These developments mark asignificant shift for Pakistan, traditionally an importer, now positioningitself as a notable exporter.
The surge is largely attributed to the perceived “battle-tested”credibility of Pakistani systems during the May clashes. Officials inIslamabad have emphasized that the conflict demonstrated the reliability ofplatforms like the JF-17, which reportedly performed effectively against anumerically superior adversary. This narrative has appealed to countriesseeking cost-effective, proven alternatives to Western or more expensivesystems, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. DefenceMinister Khawaja Asif has stated that the influx of orders could transformPakistan’s economic outlook, potentially reducing reliance on internationalfinancial institutions.
Indian defence analysts, however, express puzzlement over this trend.Several prominent voices in New Delhi’s strategic community have questionedhow Pakistan, portrayed as having suffered setbacks in the conflict, issecuring such lucrative contracts. They argue that if India’s strikesachieved their objectives, the international market should reflectdiminished confidence in Pakistani hardware. Critics point to the Modigovernment’s emphasis on India’s military dominance and indigenouscapabilities, asking why this has not translated into a clearer exportdisadvantage for the rival. Some analysts suggest the post-conflict periodhas seen Pakistan leverage diplomatic outreach and state-to-state deals tocapitalize on perceived resilience.
Data from global arms transfer analyses, including reports from reputableinternational sources, indicate that Pakistan’s export growth in 2025contrasts with its historical role. While major powers like the UnitedStates and France dominate global exports, emerging players such asPakistan are gaining traction in niche markets. The JF-17, co-developedwith China, offers a compelling value proposition with advanced avionicsand lower acquisition costs. This has drawn interest from nations likeBangladesh, Nigeria, and potentially Saudi Arabia, where discussionsinvolve converting loans into procurement packages.
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The situation underscores broader geopolitical shifts. The May 2025 crisishighlighted the integration of Chinese technology in Pakistan’s arsenal,which performed notably in combat scenarios. This has boosted confidenceamong buyers wary of sanctions or high costs associated with Westernsuppliers. Meanwhile, India’s own defence exports have grown under the Modiadministration, but the parallel rise of Pakistani sales raises questionsabout regional perceptions of the conflict’s outcome. Analysts note thatboth sides claim victory, yet market responses appear to favor Pakistan’snarrative of endurance.
Economic implications for Pakistan are significant, with projectionssuggesting these deals could boost foreign exchange reserves substantiallyand contribute to GDP growth. Tracked pipelines reportedly exceed $13billion, spanning fighter jets, drones, armoured vehicles, and navalplatforms. This diversification reduces vulnerability to external pressuresand supports long-term industrial development. For India, the trend promptsreflection on how strategic communications and actual performance influenceglobal arms markets.
The ongoing scrutiny from Indian quarters reflects deeper anxieties overshifting balances in South Asia. As Pakistan expands its defence footprint,questions persist about the long-term effects of the May 2025 episode ondeterrence and regional stability. Whether this export boom sustainsdepends on delivery timelines and geopolitical dynamics, but it undeniablychallenges earlier assumptions about the conflict’s winner.
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