Mehmet Acet
Let us start with the statements President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made aheadof his Azerbaijan visit concerning the U.S. and upcoming Biden term, whichwill commence on Jan. 20, 2021:
“We still consider any statements we have made so far and will make aspremature. Let Mr. Biden first take office, and then we will sit down anddiscuss matters with him. Just as we came together in the past and talked,whether it be in Turkey or the U.S. There can be no conflict betweennations regarding politics. Diplomacy in particular requires such mattersto be deliberated over in order to reach an agreement and find a solution.Certain people in your country may prompt negative action. That is notimportant; they are amateurs in politics. I am confident that we will moveforward with the U.S. in a very different manner.”
A post by Michael Carpenter, one of Biden’s advisers, saying, “Glad to seeTurkey signaling an openness to dialogue with the next administration,”following this statement by Erdogan, was interesting.
New Ambassador to Washington: Why Murat Mercan?
One of the steps that can be evaluated in terms of preparation for theBiden term was the appointment of Turkey’s Ambassador to Tokyo Murat Mercanas Turkey’s new envoy to Washington.
It is said that Mercan, who was involved in the founding of the Justice andDevelopment Party (AK Party), who served as a deputy, and undertookconstructive roles in foreign affairs, more specifically in relations withthe U.S., met in advance with many figures who will be serving in the Bidenadministration, and is currently in close contact with them.
It might be useful to keep this appointment in mind in this respect.
An important article was published in The New York Times a few days ago onthe characteristics of Turkish-American relations in Biden’s term.
According to the article, a senior Turkish official said, “Mr. Biden’sadvisers have made clear they will engage with Turkey through traditionaland technical diplomatic channels — and not rely on the kind of spontaneousand direct lines of communication that marked the relationship between Mr.Trump and Mr. Erdogan”
What does this mean?
Utilizing conventional and technical diplomacy channels signify a term inwhich the communication channels between institutions will be used moreeffectively. This can be considered as another sign of the importance ofthe mission tasked to new ambassador Mercan during the transition period.
First test will be concerning Russian S-400s
As mentioned in the NYT article, the Biden administration’s approach to theRussian S-400 missiles is going to be the first test of the new term inrelations between the two states. Given the position of the U.S. and Turkeywith respect to this matter, it is known that the “rift” between them israther large.
Despite Trump publicly making statements touching on Turkey’s justificationregarding this matter at the 2019 G-20 summit held in Osaka, and saying,“Tu-rkey had no other choice due to our mistakes,” there was no change inthe U.S.’s institutional position.
The only thing that did change was the form of the threat that first said,“We will impose sanctions if even a screw is delivered,” which was madeprior to the arrival of the missile battery. They then shifted to “plan B”and said, “Since they have arrived, at least do not activate them,” afterthe missiles arrived.
Simply because this is the case, Turkey returning the S-400 batteries itreceived, or the option of selling them to another country is out of thequestion for Ankara.
That ship has sailed.
The Middle way formula for the S-400S
But is there a formula that can be accepted by both parties with respect tothis challenge?
In the words of an experienced official, who was involved in the purchaseprocess of the S-400s, and has a strong grasp over the system’s technicalqualities:
“Yes, there is.”
What sort of formula is this then?
According to the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, we cancall this formula the “Pakistan model.”
Such that: When selling F-16s to Pakistan was on the agenda in the 1990s,the Americans made a deal with the Pakistan administration to be sure thatthese aircraft would not be used in any way they did not deem fit. Moreprecisely, an office was opened in this country for joint use, and the useof F-16s were monitored here.
According to my source, a similar method can be employed for the S-400s aswell.
Accordingly: Turkey and the U.S. could strike a deal similar to the modelapplied in Pakistan, and thus, an office could be opened where both Turkishand American personnel will be assigned.
Based on this formula, there is no problem concerning the active state ofthe S-400 system.
However, in the event of a possible risk to the F-35 aircraft, the S-400batteries can be turned in another direction, and this can be monitored andconfirmed by the Americans on duty at the office to be opened jointly.
This would thus eliminate U.S. fears that F-35 secrets will be seized bythe S-400s.
This would thus provide a middle way for both sides.
We know not whether such a formula may be discussed in negotiations withthe U.S., but if the intention is to find a solution, this or similarbright ideas may come up on the agenda.
In the meantime, we will continue to closely follow developments.