ISLAMABAD – General Elections 2018* aren’t just too far as its scheduleddate of July 25 is approaching near, but prophecies about the prospectivewinners in Karachi after Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s (MQM) falling fromgrace, are definitely far from any certainty this time around.*
Home to around 23 million people, the country’s biggest city Karachi hasnow become a battlefield of multiple political forces, unlike theyears-long tradition of one-party fisthold.
After revised delimitation, the city now has three more seats of theassemblies, one for National Assembly and two for Sindh Assembly, takingthe total number of seats in the metropolis to 21 (NA) and 44 (PA),respectively.
Following delimitation in Karachi Division, the highly populated DistrictWest has now the highest number of seats, which are five for the NA and 11for the provincial assembly. Residents of District South will now vote fortwo national and five provincial assembly seats, while District Central hasfour NA and eight provincial assembly seats. Three NA and five provincialassembly constituencies lie in District Malir, whereas, District Korangihas three NA and seven provincial assembly seats. In District East lie fourNA and eight provincial assembly constituencies.
All of the aforementioned Karachi districts are not ‘arguably’ under theinfluence of any particular political party. The security crackdown aimedat ridding the city of violence and militant groups operating underpolitical patronage followed by divisions within the Mutahidda has open thefield for many forces who would look to capitalize on targeting MQM voterbase in its strongholds.
*Who will grab the driving seat?*
The Rangers operation that netizens saw in 2013 had the carryover effectson the political landscape of the city as the powerful party ruling thecity Muttahida Qaumi Movement (now divided into three factions,Bahadurabad, PIB and London) suffered a major jolt with all its officeseither being sealed or closed in the wake of operation by the paramilitaryforce.
It’s pertinent to mention here that in 2013 polls, MQM had grabbed 17 NAseats and 35 provincial assembly seats in Sindh. But repeating the samefeat appears to be a demanding, yet not impossible task, in the currentpolitical scenario.
The troubling toll on the MQM didn’t recede since it started to unleash.The resurgence of ex-party loyalist and former city mayor Mustafa Kamal asa rebel forcing MQM out of its comfort zone, followed by defections ofparty leaders, especially legislators, to Kamal-led Pak Sarzameen Party andcreation of multiple divisions within the party fold further compoundedproblems for the Muttahida.
Kamal formed his own party as a parallel opposing force to MQM and monthslater former Senator formally unveiled his plans to take part in mainstreampolitics.
Having said that, the vote bank Kamal currently enjoys is a reality thatcomes with a surmise. The party is in a nascent stage as well as untested.It’s yet to be seen how PSP could transform its rabble-rousing into realvote power.
*PPP peeping into rivals’ strongholds*
When it comes to Karachi, the Pakistan People’s Party was generally knownto have handful of strongholds in the city – Malir and Lyari to say inparticular. But this time the party seems to equally focus to the home turfof the MQM. The recent PPP public meeting in Liaquatabad’s Tanki Ground –the area with strong voter base of the MQM – implies that the people’sparty will leave no stone unturned to make the most of troubles facing byits rival.
In the 2013 elections, PPP had won three out of 20 NA seats, and three outof 42 provincial assembly seats in the city. But the changing politicaldynamics could be well gauged from recent by-elections in PS-127 and PS-114where the PPP grabbed both the seats that were won by the MQM in the lastgeneral elections.
*The PTI factor*
Unlike 2013 polls when the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) had reachedalmost each house of the city with its popular appeal of reforms and‘change’, the party’s position doesn’t seem to be too firm because it’s notjust MQM that PTI looks to challenge this time. The presence of otherpolitical groups will be equally challenging to deal with.
PTI had won one NA and three provincial assembly seats in Karachi in 2013elections contrary to assumptions and predictions of a far better show. TheImran Khan-led party has already decided to field its chairman in MQM’sstronghold NA-243, which reflects the self-assurance the party might haveat the moment.
*Religio-political parties*
Like other parties, the voter base of religious parties especiallyJamaat-e-Islami (JI) has sizable standing in the city. Before the rise ofMQM in 80s JI was one of the major player of the political scene in Karachiwith influence in the city’s Urdu-speaking population. The party’s votingfortunes, however, dwindle, after the rise of the MQM. The JI this timecontesting under the Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – a coalition ofmultiple religious groups.
In 2002, MMA had won five NA and six PA seats in Karachi. But in 2018 otherreligious groups such as Tehreek-e-Labbaik and Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeenalso contesting from the city making it difficult for the MMA to grab thesizable vote bank of the population who prefer to vote to the religiousparties.
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Awami National Party have also fieldedtheir candidates with considerable influence in Punjabi and Pashto speakingvoters of the city. But their significance is debatable in presence ofother political forces much relevant to the Karachi context.
It is going to be seen how they play their cards to take benefit of an openelectoral field in Karachi.
BY: Azhar Khan