ISLAMABAD – Attack in Quetta, on Gwadar Coastal Highway, now series ofattacks in Sri lanka , now Lahore have all same foot prints. Pakistan isbeing punished as IK government not towing lines of power brokers in US,West and India for its own strategic objectives.
Sri Lanka, again being told that you behave or worst will follow. In theequation you will find China.
CPEC must be obstructed to expand its influence, and save Indian assetswhich are in disarray. Same is in Sri Lanka to stop Chinese influence. Letthere be no doubt Pakistan has to face not only full wrath of 5thgeneration war, economic strangulation but sabotage, proxy attacks, andincreased tension on the LoC and also on western borders.
Political polarisation within the country is fully exploited by outsidepowers and give fuel to their propaganda against Pakistan. In this milieuhave always maintained new battleground is Indian Ocean in particular andArabian Sea at large. So will be threat to Pakistan coast on one sidebeside internal threats.
CPEC was opposed from day one by India and USA.
First, veiled pressure was exerted but later open threats followed. Gawadarand Ormara , one commercial and other operational port are viewed threat toIndian ambitions to control Indian ocean.
Oman has already given access to USA and Chahbahar with Indian help , Qataris already US base , Diego Garcia and dozen of drone launching airfieldsstretching all along from Sudan up to heart of South Africa and moving deepin the heart of African continent adequately cover the theatre . CPEC isfast developing, so are ports of Gwadar and Ormara , in the western coast .
Sri Lanka coastal development with Chinese help and management of strategicport at the confluence of sea roots has upset the Indian designs ofcontrolling Indian ocean. For that India from last two decades have beenbuilding it Naval Assets for the strategically offensive role.
Acquisition of second aircraft carrier and enhancement of submarine fleetto counter Pakistan edge. Indians ambitions to have strong blue water navyare shared by USA and supported by Israel that consider Pakistan and Chinaas emerging threat
Let there be no doubt, problems for Pakistan are going to increase afterIndian election. Any body who may form new government in India, India’sstrategic interests which are aligned with USA will not allow any headwayin peace talks. Similarly Pakistan coastal defence is going to be acritical factor for CPEC and economic growth.
Pakistan to have Gawadar highway safe to ensure conducive industrial andtrading activities. Pakistan India quantum of naval assets is virtually oneto three. Indian Naval strength is around 79000 and over 700 naval assetsof different type.
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The main stay is two, second being procured, Aircraft Carriers and largefleet of submarines out of which some are, Russian made, are due forretirement. Whereas Pakistan is around 22000 with naval assets slightlyover 200. Thus relative strength wise we are small and Indian Navy is fifthlargest navy in the world.
It is important to remember India’s coastline virtually is divided in Eastand West coast. In the East the threat is minimal except control sea-lanesfrom straits of Malacca to Sri Lanka curvature. Thus India is in a positionto divert its assets in the west against Pakistan.
Our main stay is deterrence through fast moving submarines and surveillancecapabilities. But that is not enough. We must move from defence tooffensive defence. Mere deterrence is not enough. The threat on the coastright from Keti Bunder to all the way to Gawader is multi dimensional.
Not only protection of sea-lanes but also coast against sea borne, air andeven from ground attacks through landing craft with a view not onlythreaten coast but cut off Karachi from mainland. Thus a gigantic task forPakistan defence planners. Both Keti Bunder and across Sir Creek arevulnerable area from any threat. Coupled with employment of Aircraft fromcarriers as force multiplier.
Question is to prepare civilian population of Karachi to be ready for hardtime in time of hostilities. Indian nuclear submarine and attack capabilityhas added new dimension to threat.
Though Pakistan has now capability to thwart such threat from sea basedvessels, it is important to have nuclear powered submarines who can pry indeep sea the enemy and wait for days. So is the requirement of Air CraftCarrier.
As Pakistan and China interests in CPEC are common, we must seek not onlyChina but also Russia’s support to build naval capability. It is importantwe do not stress our relationship with China with new IMF dispensation. Sois the space we gained with Russia must not be allowed to shrink.
BY: Tariq Khalil—The writer, a retired Brigadier, is decorated veteran of65 & 71 wars and a defence analyst based in Lahore.
