ISLAMABAD – The hopes for peace raised as a result of the US-Talibanwithdrawal deal in Doha have been dealt an early and perhaps fatal blow.
While attacks against the Afghan security forces all over Afghanistan and aUS air strike in response in recent days indicated the difficultiesinherent in the situation on the ground, the slaughter of Shia Hazaras at arally in Kabul to commemorate Abdul Ali Mazari yielded 29-32 dead and 58-61wounded. This is the deadliest assault since the Doha deal. While theTaliban have denied responsibility, Islamic State (IS) has claimed it.
The glaring security lapse at a rally to commemorate a Hazara leaderkidnapped and killed by the Taliban some years ago indicates the fraughtconditions of ensuring a reduction of violence that is supposed tolubricate the withdrawal of foreign forces. The lapse is even moreconcerning because last year the same rally was subjected to a mortarbarrage, killing at least 11 people. Reports say two gunmen fired on therally with machine guns and lobbed grenades on the crowd from a nearbyunder-construction site.
Although the two attackers were eventually killed by security forces, thefailure to secure the site of the rally must stand out as a serioussecurity failure. President Ashraf Ghani condemned the attack as a “crimeagainst humanity”. Pakistan too condemned it while hoping the peace processwould continue. Fortunately, Abdullah Abdullah was at the rally but escapedunharmed.
The withdrawal deal hinges, amongst other things, on the Taliban not onlyreducing their own attacks but controlling al Qaeda and IS otherwise the USmilitary may be forced to remain. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo triedto peddle a ‘glass half-full’ theory by arguing violence has come downoverall, but this is unlikely to being any comfort to the Hazara victims ofthis atrocity. IS in particular is known to be targeting Shias on asectarian basis and may not be amenable to Taliban control.
As if all this were not enough, the intra-Afghan talks scheduled for March10, 2020 seem stalled over the Afghan government’s refusal to go along withthe prisoner swap agreed between the US and the Taliban in Doha.
US President Donald Trump is not known for pulling his punches.
In a tacit admission of Washington’s defeat in the ‘graveyard of empires’,a defeat perceptive analysts had predicted as long ago as 2001, Mr Trumpadmitted in answer to a reporter that a total Taliban victory after the USand NATO troops withdraw could not be ruled out.
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The basic flaw in the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan over the last19 years was the notion that outside occupying forces could construct aviable state able to defend itself against the insurgents. To add to whatlooks increasingly like the Afghan government being thrown to the wolves,Washington failed to accord any weight or status to the Afghan governmentduring the parleys, and seemingly expected decisions taken over its head(e.g. the prisoner swap) to be swallowed without demur.
The prisoner issue seemed the only card left in Ashraf Ghani’s deck, and hehas duly played it to remind not only the Taliban, but his supposed allythe US that it cannot simply be ridden roughshod over.
Although President Trump is right in arguing that the US cannot stayanother 20 years on top of the past 19 years to hold the Afghangovernment’s hand, realistically speaking the ability of President AshrafGhani’s government to resist the looming Taliban thrust for exclusive poweris open to serious question.
The US, after its fundamental mistake of invading and occupying Afghanistanin 2001 rather than seeking other means of combating al Qaeda and bringingthe Taliban to heel, now seems set to ‘cut and run’ without a thought forwhat may follow.
The Afghan Taliban’s past (and suspected continuing) ties with groups alQaeda and IS are likely to compound the failure of the deal, but Pakistanmust also be alert to the possibility of the Afghan Taliban favouring arevival of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan from its safe havens across theborder on Afghan soil.
