ISLAMABAD:Reports emerging from the United States suggest that PresidentDonald Trump has been briefed on fresh military options against Iranfollowing deadly protests inside the country, according to claimsattributed to the New York Times. While Washington has not confirmed anyimminent action, the disclosure has reignited regional anxieties. ForPakistan, a country balancing fragile economic recovery with complexregional diplomacy, the possibility of a US strike on Iran raises urgentquestions about security spillovers, diplomatic pressures, and indirectinvolvement in a rapidly destabilising neighbourhood.
A direct US attack on Iran would almost certainly destabilise the broaderMiddle East, but its aftershocks would extend well beyond the Gulf.Pakistan shares a long and sensitive border with Iran, where cross-bordermovement, trade, and security coordination remain delicate even in normalcircumstances. Any escalation could strain border management, heightenrefugee inflows, and complicate counterterrorism efforts in Balochistan.Analysts warn that militant groups could exploit regional chaos, increasingthe burden on Pakistan’s already stretched internal security apparatus.
Economically, Pakistan could face significant indirect consequences from aconflict involving Iran. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through whicha substantial portion of global oil supplies passes, would likely pushenergy prices upward. Pakistan, heavily reliant on imported fuel, wouldfeel immediate pressure on its balance of payments, inflation, and powergeneration costs. At a time when Islamabad is negotiating financialstability with international lenders, a sharp rise in energy prices couldundermine fiscal planning and slow economic recovery.
Diplomatically, Pakistan would find itself navigating an increasinglynarrow path between competing regional and global powers. Tehran is aneighbouring state with which Pakistan seeks stable ties, while Washingtonremains an influential actor in Pakistan’s economic and security landscape.A US strike on Iran would intensify expectations on Islamabad to clarifyits position. Maintaining neutrality may prove difficult amid pressure fromallies, particularly Gulf states aligned with Washington, and from domesticopinion wary of regional wars.
Pakistan’s military and strategic planners would also need to prepare forindirect security implications without becoming a party to the conflict.Any use of regional airspace, intelligence-sharing requests, or logisticalsupport could draw Islamabad into controversy. Historically, Pakistan hastried to avoid entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts, learning from pastexperiences that external wars often produce internal backlash. A conflictwith Iran, a fellow Muslim country, could amplify domestic sensitivitiesand complicate civil-military decision-making.
Another concern lies in the potential impact on Pakistan’s relations withChina. Beijing has deep economic stakes in both Pakistan and Iran,particularly through energy investments and regional connectivity projects.A US-Iran conflict could disrupt China’s regional plans, indirectlyaffecting projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.Islamabad would need to reassure Beijing of its commitment to regionalstability while managing any perception that it is aligning too closelywith Washington’s strategic objectives.
Humanitarian consequences also cannot be discounted. A military escalationcould trigger displacement inside Iran, pushing refugees towardsneighbouring countries, including Pakistan. Managing such inflows wouldpresent logistical and social challenges, particularly in border provincesalready facing development deficits. International humanitarian agenciesmight seek Pakistan’s cooperation, adding another layer of responsibility.The cumulative effect of security, economic, and humanitarian pressurescould test state capacity at multiple levels simultaneously.
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From a regional perspective, instability in Iran could embolden rivalactors and deepen sectarian and geopolitical fault lines across West andSouth Asia. Pakistan has historically sought to reduce sectarian tensionsat home and avoid being drawn into proxy rivalries. A US strike couldinflame regional rhetoric, making it harder for Islamabad to maintaininternal cohesion. Policymakers would need to intensify diplomatic outreachto prevent external conflicts from aggravating domestic fault lines.
Ultimately, while Pakistan is unlikely to be directly involved in any USmilitary action against Iran, the ripple effects would be difficult toavoid. Strategic restraint, proactive diplomacy, and economic contingencyplanning would be essential to mitigate potential damage. As globalattention focuses on Washington and Tehran, Islamabad’s challenge will beto protect national interests without becoming collateral to aconfrontation it neither seeks nor controls.
Source:https://www.nytimes.com
Tags: Pakistan, United States, Iran, Pakistan Army
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