ISLAMABAD - Indian $5.43 billion Air Defence Missile System is the biggest ever threat to PAF.
India, eyeing the Russian S-400 Triumf long-range, anti-aircraft system delivery in 18 months
The purchase has sharply increased the conventional military asymmetry in South Asia, and is a major threat to Pakistan. India having ordered five squadrons of the export version.
The S-400 is capable of tracking and destroying aircraft, including drones, at long range, much before any hostile aircraft enter the user’s airspace and can also target incoming ballistic and cruise missiles.
According to data available through Russian open sources, picked up by military analysts, the S-400 integrates a multifunction radar with autonomous detection and targeting systems, four types of missiles, launchers and a command and control center.
It is also reportedly effective against aircraft and missiles flying “off the deck”.
Indian pre- and post-deal assertions that the system is meant for air defense against China are largely a red herring. While New Delhi will deploy the system to cover its airspace towards China, its primary, hot use would be against Pakistan.
Beijing already has the S-400, and while there are border tensions between India and China—they had a near-three-month standoff at Doklam in 2017—neither side showed any appetite for escalation.
This is not the case with Pakistan. India has long sought to punish Pakistan just short of Islamabad’s nuclear red lines, but has not been able to figure out how.
Since the Kargil conflict in 1999, India has been working on a limited war option. During the Twin Peaks crisis, generally referred to as the 2001-02 standoff, India also realized that its longer interior lines make mobilization cumbersome. Pakistan completed its mobilization much quicker, given its shorter lines.
The result: India began working on what came to be known as the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD).
The CSD envisaged forward-located Independent Battle Groups (IBGs), each with its offensive and support arms, integrating air and ground assets for a short, sharp strike against targets not too deep in Pakistan. Once again, the idea was premised on the assumption that Pakistan would not resort to using its nuclear option first and early into the conflict.
The doctrine has since been rechristened Pro-active Operations (POAs). It is generally accepted on both sides that a narrow band does exist for a limited conflict. On its part, Pakistan plugged the gap with the Nasr, a short-range missile which can carry nuclear warheads. Whether Nasr has been or can be effective is another debate and the putative arrival in South Asia of the S-400, makes that debate largely irrelevant.
So far India, despite conducting exercises to validate PAOs, has gaps in its capability to conduct operations with speed, coordination and accuracy. This is notwithstanding claims about having conducted a surgical strike along the Line of Control.
How does the S-400 fit into this scenario?
As noted, there’s no comparable system in the world right now. The U.S. Theater High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) or the Patriot fall much short of what S-400 can deliver. Its efficacy against aircraft is proven.
The only warplane considered capable of surviving against the S-400 is the U.S. F-22 Raptor, and in an operational environment, even that aircraft has to use its full range of countermeasures to evade the S-400’s radar and missiles.
And while it is still dogged by problems, the F-35 is another aircraft whose stealth capabilities could possibly overwhelm the S-400.
Some experts, however, have assessed that the S-400s acquisition radars are designed to defeat modern stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35.
Other warplanes, going by what experts have determined, stand little chance against the Triumf.
There are ways to counter it, and the Pakistan Air Force is very likely going to work on what it can and must do, but one thing is obvious: the induction of the S-400 in the Indian arsenal will force the PAF to rethink its operational strategies in a major way: low flying, finding bands not covered by the S-400 radars, the possibility of jamming the radars, rethinking targeting strategies etc.
That could prove difficult, based on what Stephen Bryen wrote about one of the S-400’s missiles in *The National Interest *in January 2018:
“The 9M96E2 is one of the jewels of the S-400 system. It flies at Mach 15 (around 5,000 meters per second or 18,500 kph), it can engage targets as low as 5 meters off the ground, and it can maneuver pulling up to 20Gs.”
Missiles still have a better chance of overwhelming the S-400 if the targeting strategy relies on greater numbers, including decoys. Similarly, the air-breathing cruise missiles are notoriously difficult to intercept because of their nape of the earth flight paths and terrain guidance, among other capabilities.
We don’t know exactly how watered down the export version is compared with the system operated by Russia. During the Soviet era, the practice was simple: even Warsaw Pact states were exported the less-capable versions of military systems and platforms. There is reason to believe that S-400’s export version will lack some cutting-edge features.
Even so, its presence next-door should begin to worry Pakistan’s military planners terribly.