ISLAMABAD – Indian Military could launch a war against Pakistan in 2020,warns American Analyst Micheal Kugelman.
About an article he wrote in December last year in which he expressed fearsthat there was a potential of Pakistan-India war in 2020, Kugelman said,“He did not suggest there will be a war but there is a good chance of awar”.
Explaining the reason, he said the relationship between Pakistan and Indiais even worse now than it was when Pulwama and Balakot happened.
The repeal of Article 370 is such a game changer for this relationship inso many ways, he said, adding that it ratcheted up tensions in a big way.“Let’s say there is another triggering act; whether there is a provocationin Pulwama or something else; it would mean that it would be very hard todeescalate a crisis,” he feared.
Kugelman said the United States and other international players tried tohelp defuse the crisis last time but it would be a lot harder to do thatthis time around. “What I also worry about is that ‘India could be theprovocateur this time around’,” he added.
“There has been a lot a rhetoric coming from very senior officials in Indiathat at one point they are going to reclaim POK, as they put it.” Kugelmansaid he has heard this before but the intensity of the rhetoric is a lotmore frequent than he is used to.
Last month, new Indian army chief Gen Manoj Mukund Naravane threatened thathis force would take control of Azad Kashmir if the Indian government gavesuch an order. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said earlier this month thatIndia could make Pakistan “bite the dust” in less than 10 days – a claimlaughed off by the Pakistani leadership.
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While their leaders are stepping up their war rhetoric, Indian troops areheating up the de facto border with Pakistan by frequently violating a 2003truce between the two countries.
Asked if he think India is serious to trigger a war, Kugelman said: “Ican’t say for sure but I think given how the Indian government hasproceeded and followed up on a lot of threats that it hadn’t carried outbefore; whether you are talking about Article 370 repeal, the newcitizenship law or building the Ram Temple; I would not be surprised.”
Kugelman’s views strengthen Pakistan’s warnings that India might stage afalse-flag operation to use it as pretext for war with Pakistan. PrimeMinister Imran Khan has repeatedly warned the international community thatModi, an RSS ideologue, was a threat to not only regional but global peace.
Some analysts believe that the Modi-led India would wait until it receivesRafale fighter jets from France and installs the Russian-made S-400 DefenceSystem as, at the moment, its ageing air fleet can’t compete withPakistan’s warplanes.
