ISLAMABAD: Recent developments along the Saudi-Turkish axis have sparkedintense speculation about Türkiye’s possible integration into the newlyformalized defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The StrategicMutual Defence Agreement signed in September 2025 has already reshapedMiddle Eastern and South Asian security dynamics, prompting analysts toquestion whether Ankara’s deepening military ties with Riyadh could evolveinto a trilateral arrangement. This prospect gains momentum daily as jointdefense initiatives accelerate, raising suspense over the emergence of apowerful Muslim-world security bloc.
The core of this evolving axis traces back to the September 17, 2025,signing of the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement in Riyadh.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharifformalized a commitment declaring aggression against one nation asaggression against both, echoing NATO-style mutual defense principles. Thispact formalized decades of informal cooperation, including Pakistanitraining of Saudi forces and deployments dating to the 1960s, transformingthem into a binding strategic framework amid rising regional uncertainties.
A pivotal trigger for this agreement was Israel’s airstrikes on Doha inearly September 2025, which unsettled Gulf states and exposedvulnerabilities in existing security arrangements. The attack promptedemergency Arab-Islamic summits and highlighted doubts over U.S. commitmentsto Gulf defense. Saudi Arabia, seeking to diversify beyond traditionalalliances, turned to Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and strategic depth,creating a hedge against threats from Iran, Yemen’s Houthis, and broaderinstability. The pact emphasizes joint deterrence, intelligence sharing,and military coordination without explicit nuclear provisions.
Parallel to this bilateral milestone, trilateral defense engagement amongSaudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye has gained significant traction.Multiple meetings of the trilateral defense collaboration platform occurredsince August 2023, with the third slated for Riyadh’s World Defense Show.These sessions focus on expanding defense cooperation, technology transfer,joint research, and production, including Turkish drone systems like Akinciwith increasing Saudi localization. Analysts note this mechanism synergizesthe three nations’ strengths in manpower, technology, and financing.
Türkiye and Saudi Arabia have pursued rapprochement since 2022, overcomingpast tensions through defense industry partnerships and joint exercises.Pakistan’s longstanding defense ties with Türkiye, featuring technologytransfers and co-production, further facilitate integration. ProminentTurkish commentators have amplified claims that a formal trilateralmilitary partnership is increasingly likely, potentially impacting globalgeopolitics and Muslim-world security. Such an arrangement would poolresources for self-sufficiency in defense, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030and shared strategic interests.
The Israeli recognition of Somaliland on December 26, 2025, has addedcomplexity to these shifts. As the first UN member state to recognize thebreakaway region, Israel’s move bolsters UAE influence in the Horn ofAfrica and Red Sea corridor, challenging Turkish investments in Somalia andbroader regional ambitions. This gambit, involving strategic port accessand countering Houthi threats, has drawn sharp condemnation from SaudiArabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and others, viewing it as interference thatfragments states and escalates rivalries. Consequently, it appears to havebackfired by accelerating counter-alignments among Ankara, Riyadh, andIslamabad.
Speculation about Türkiye’s inclusion intensified in early 2026, fueled byreports of deepening trilateral engagements and claims from Turkishexperts. While no official announcement confirms full membership in theSaudi-Pakistan pact, ongoing dialogues suggest modular expansion remainsfeasible. The framework could evolve beyond bilateral commitments intobroader cooperation encompassing joint exercises, arms production, andcrisis response, enhancing deterrence without rigid structures.
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This axis reflects a broader regional trend toward multi-alignment as U.S.influence wanes and threats proliferate. Pakistan gains economic lifelinesand strategic leverage, Saudi Arabia secures diversified guarantees, andTürkiye expands its defense footprint. However, challenges persist,including internal GCC divisions and sensitivities around Iran and India.The pace of developments indicates this emerging partnership could redefinesecurity in West Asia and beyond.
Source:https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/pakistan-turkiye-s-arabia-agree-to-increase-trilateral-defense-cooperation/3104222
Tags: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement
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