ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Kamra has long beenrecognised as the hub for producing the JF-17 Thunder, a jointly developedmultirole fighter with China that serves as a cornerstone of the PakistanAir Force’s modernisation efforts. With an established annual productioncapacity of around 20 to 25 aircraft, the facility has successfullydelivered over 150 units domestically while fulfilling smaller exportcommitments to countries like Myanmar and Nigeria. However, a recent waveof high-value export deals has sparked intense scrutiny over whether thisoutput can realistically accommodate the growing backlog withoutsignificant expansion or delays.
The momentum began with Azerbaijan’s acquisition of JF-17 Block IIIvariants. Initial reports indicated a contract worth approximately $1.6billion signed in early 2024, later expanding to a $4.6 billion agreementfor up to 40 aircraft, including training, armaments, and support packages.Deliveries commenced in late 2025, with five units publicly displayedduring Azerbaijan’s Victory Day parade, marking the country’s integrationof this advanced platform featuring AESA radar and enhanced avionics. Thisdeal not only represented Pakistan’s largest-ever defence export but alsohighlighted the JF-17’s appeal in regions seeking cost-effectivealternatives to Western or Russian systems.
Compounding the demand, Pakistan sealed a major agreement with Libya’sNational Army in December 2025. Valued at over $4 billion and potentiallyreaching $4.6 billion, the package includes 16 JF-17 fighters alongsidetrainer aircraft and other equipment, to be delivered over 2.5 years.Despite operating under a United Nations arms embargo on Libya, officialshave maintained that the transaction complies with international normsthrough established precedents of engagement. The deal underscoresPakistan’s strategic push to expand its footprint in North Africa whilecapitalising on the JF-17’s proven performance in diverse environments.
Further momentum emerged from ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia. Inearly 2026, reports indicated negotiations to convert approximately $2billion of Saudi loans to Pakistan into a procurement package for JF-17Block III jets, with the total value possibly escalating to $4 billion whenincluding weapons, simulators, and maintenance support. This arrangementbuilds on strengthened bilateral ties, including a mutual defence pactsigned in 2025, and reflects Riyadh’s interest in diversifying its airforce inventory amid evolving regional security dynamics. While not yetfinalised, the talks illustrate how financial mechanisms are facilitatingdefence cooperation.
Collectively, these commitments point to an export pipeline of 76 to 96JF-17 aircraft in the near term, excluding Pakistan Air Force requirementsthat continue to prioritise fleet expansion and upgrades. Export prices forthe Block III variant are estimated at $50 million to $100 million perunit, depending on configuration, though production costs remain closer to$25 million, offering attractive margins for Pakistan’s defence industry.The surge follows heightened global interest, partly attributed to theaircraft’s combat validation and affordability compared to competitors.
Yet the arithmetic reveals a stark challenge. With PAC’s current capacitylimited to roughly 25 aircraft annually, fulfilling domestic replenishmentalongside these exports could stretch timelines considerably. Industryobservers note that previous production rates hovered around 16 units peryear before recent accelerations, suggesting that ramping up to meet theinflux would require substantial investments in infrastructure, skilledworkforce, and supply chain reliability, particularly for importedcomponents from China.
This scenario raises broader implications for Pakistan’s defence exportambitions. Success in scaling production could position the JF-17 as aflagship product in the global market, generating foreign exchange andenhancing strategic influence. Conversely, any delays might erode buyerconfidence and invite scrutiny over delivery commitments. As negotiationswith additional interested parties persist, the coming years will testPAC’s adaptability in balancing national requirements with lucrativeinternational opportunities.
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The developments also reflect shifting geopolitical trends, where nationsseek reliable, sanction-resistant platforms amid uncertainties intraditional supply chains. For Pakistan, the JF-17’s export trajectoryrepresents a milestone in indigenous defence manufacturing, but sustainingit demands careful strategic planning to avoid overcommitment.
Source:https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-saudi-talks-jf-17-jets-for-loans-deal-sources-say-2026-01-07/
Tags: Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, JF-17 Thunder
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