Security
ISLAMABAD: In a recent broadcast on India TV, a prominent Indian militaryanalyst issued a stark warning, labeling the growing alliance betweenPakistan, Bangladesh, and China as a severe threat to India’s nationalsecurity. The analyst argued that this “anti-India bromance” could lead toeconomic isolation, tightened borders, and shattered diplomatic ties ifunchecked. This statement comes amid escalating tensions in South Asia,where shifting geopolitical dynamics have raised alarms in New Delhi. Theanalyst urged India to counter these developments aggressively, predictingthat continued plotting against India would result in the downfall of theinvolved economies while India ascends. This provocative rhetoric hassparked debates on regional stability, with experts questioning thepotential for a broader conflict.
Recent reports indicate that Bangladesh’s interim government has hinted atjoining a regional bloc with China and Pakistan, explicitly excludingIndia. According to statements from Bangladesh’s Foreign Affairs Adviser,this move aims to enhance strategic positioning in the region. Data from AlJazeera reveals that such alliances could expand cooperation in defense andtrade, potentially duplicating models seen in other partnerships. India’sconcerns are amplified by Bangladesh’s refusal to condemn Indian militaryactions against Pakistan, signaling a departure from previous bilateralwarmth. Analysts note that this shift follows internal political changes inBangladesh, with economic dependencies on China growing to over 20 percentof its infrastructure investments in the past five years.
Research from the Crisis Group highlights strained India-Bangladeshrelations post a “golden era,” with warnings from analysts that unaddressedissues could lead to security risks, especially for India’s Northeast.Defense budgets reflect the imbalance: India’s allocation for 2025-2026stands at $78.7 billion, dwarfing Pakistan’s $11 billion and Bangladesh’s$4.5 billion, yet combined with China’s $230 billion, the alliance poses aformidable counterweight.
The China-Pakistan-Bangladesh triangle is viewed as a strategic counter toIndia’s aspirational dominance in South Asia. Insights from The GS Insightjournal detail how this axis could challenge India’s influence throughenhanced economic corridors and military pacts. For instance, Pakistan’straining of Bangladesh’s army, set to begin in February 2026, has beenflagged by Indian media as a direct threat. Data shows China’s investmentsin Bangladesh surpassing $25 billion under the Belt and Road Initiative,fostering dependencies that India perceives as encroachments. This has ledto silent warnings from New Delhi, including potential trade restrictionsthat could impact Bangladesh’s $50 billion garment export industry, heavilyreliant on Indian markets.
Geopolitical analysts warn that unchecked alliances could shatter regionalforums like SAARC, already stalled due to India-Pakistan tensions. AYouTube special edition by Hindustan Times reviewed 2025’s conflicts,positioning the Bangladesh-Pakistan pact as a key escalator. Economic datafrom the World Bank indicates Pakistan’s GDP growth at 2.5 percent in 2025,Bangladesh at 6.5 percent, and India at 6.8 percent, but alliance-drivensanctions could reverse these trends. The analyst’s call for crumblingeconomies references potential border tightenings, affecting cross-bordertrade valued at $2 billion annually between India and Bangladesh.
India’s strategic concerns extend to the Northeast, whereBangladesh-Pakistan ties could exacerbate insurgencies. MSN reportshighlight risks to India’s Siliguri Corridor, a vital link, amid reports ofintelligence sharing among the trio. Military simulations suggest athree-front scenario could strain India’s resources, despite its superiorconventional forces. Data from SIPRI shows India’s arms imports decliningby 11 percent from 2019-2023, shifting to self-reliance, while Pakistan andBangladesh rely on Chinese supplies, accounting for 70 percent of theirarsenals.
The analyst’s rhetoric of “India rises while you fall” reflects confidencein India’s economic trajectory, projected to reach $4 trillion GDP by 2027per IMF forecasts. However, critics argue this overlooks mutualdependencies, such as India’s reliance on Bangladeshi labor and Pakistanitransit routes. Research-based assessments urge dialogue overconfrontation, noting that past SAARC summits mitigated similar tensions.Yet, with Bangladesh’s anti-India remarks post-2025 elections, the path toreconciliation appears fraught, building suspense on whether economicpressures will force a realignment.
As alliances solidify, the potential for cyber and hybrid threatsincreases. Experts cite China’s cyber capabilities, ranked top globally bythe Belfer Center, as a multiplier for the axis. India’s response includesbolstering alliances with the US and Quad nations, with joint exercises up30 percent in 2025. Data-driven models predict that sustained plottingcould lead to a 15 percent dip in regional trade, affecting millions. Theanalyst’s warning thus serves as a hook for broader discourse on SouthAsian power balances.
In conclusion, while the Indian analyst’s dire predictions create suspensearound shattering alliances, data suggests a complex interplay of economicsand security. Bangladesh’s pivot towards Pakistan and China, amid India’swarnings, could redefine borders and economies. Stakeholders call formultilateral forums to address these deadly threats, preventing a slideinto conflict that no nation can afford in an interconnected world.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com
Tags: Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, China
ogimageimage-name
