OSLAMABAD India is in a state of visible panic over President Trump’sreiteration for mediating over Kashmir dispute. Fresh deployment of 38000paramilitary troops, use of cluster munition across the Line of Control andsudden cancellation of Amaranth Yatra coupled with a spate of governmentorders taking stock of the food and other essential items in Kashmir hascreated a massive fear psychosis. Some extraordinary thing may be in theoffing.
Locals fear that government may be planning to either set aside aconstitutional provision, Article 35A, or make a related announcement thatwould strip Kashmir of its special rights. However, at the same time, onecannot rule out the possibility of India executing a false flag operationresulting into mass casualties of yatris and tourists, and blaming Pakistanfor it. India has a notorious track record of such false flag operations.
Associated press has reported that “government order in Indian-administeredKashmir on Friday [August 02] asked tourists and Hindu pilgrims visiting aHimalayan cave shrine “to curtail their stay”, citing security concerns andintensifying tensions following India’s announcement it was sending moretroops to the region”. Kashmir’s home secretary said in the order that thepilgrims and tourists should “curtail their stay in the (Kashmir) valleyimmediately and take necessary measures to return as soon as possible.” Theorder cited “prevailing security situation” and the “latest intelligenceinputs of terror threats with specific targeting” of the annual Hindupilgrimage as reasons for the advisory. The Great Exodus is in the making.
The reports of a further surge in troop deployment has met with criticismin India. Former IoK chief minister Mehbooba Mufti noted that such moveswill lead to the creation of panic and distress in the valley. There is“Complete chaos on the streets of Srinagar. People rushing to ATMs, petrolpumps and stocking up on essential supplies. Is GOI [government of India]only concerned about the safety of yatris while Kashmiris have been left totheir own devices?” she tweeted. Rumour has it that she has been placedunder house arrest. Another former chief minister Omar Abdullah said:“Although this unprecedented order would seem to suggest a genuine fear ofa massive terror strike directed at Amarnath ji yatris or/and tourists thiswill do nothing to dampen the sense of fear & foreboding that prevails inthe valley at the moment.”
Much to the dismay of Modi, the US President Donald Trump has reiteratedhis offer to mediate between Pakistan and India on Kashmir. India is averseto the idea of mediation. Trump also said he reckons the prime ministers ofPakistan and India “are fantastic people” and “could get along very well”.Hyperventilating Indian television anchors had gone intoultra-nationalistic fury when Trump revealed that Prime Minister NarendraModi had requested him to play mediator over Kashmir. Trump made thedisclosure during a meeting with Imran Khan on July 23 that he would beglad to play mediator between Pakistan and India on Kashmir. WhileIslamabad had welcomed the US president’s offer, New Delhi was quick toflatly repudiate Trump’s disclosure. Modi has since been keeping a mumdespite calls from the opposition for a clarification or denial.
Analysts opine that Modi is silent because he did convey this to Trump. Heis troubled by the Kashmir freedom struggle that is now taking a toll onthe Indian economy. While India was in a state of denial, Trump’s chiefeconomic adviser on July 24 rejected the suggestion that the US presidenthad “made up” the claim. “The president does not make anything up,” LarryKudlow told a reporter at a White House briefing. And when the debate onTrump’s disclosure started to die down in India, President Trump reiteratedhis Kashmir mediation offer on August 01 that he would intervene if theleadership of the two countries “required him to do so”. “If negotiated – apeace deal between India and Pakistan would be a great diplomaticachievement for President Trump, making him closer to Nobel Peace Prize.
However, India has again repulsed the idea of mediation on Kashmir. IndianForeign Secretary said India has conveyed its stance to US Secretary ofState Mike Pompeo. “[I] have conveyed to American counterpart @SecPompeothis morning in clear terms that any discussion on Kashmir, if at allwarranted, will only be with Pakistan and only bilaterally,” he wrote onTwitter. “Trump’s offer only adds more pressure on India to resolve theKashmir Issue,” the diplomat added.
President Trump’s mediation offer is diplomatic setback for New Delhi.Trump’s statement is jolt for India. It is a huge plus for Pakistan; andnow India is compelled to negotiate. Analysts believe Modi’s India wouldnot respond positively to Trump’s offer primarily because of theconservative politics at home and the opposition’s attitude in India.Situation in IoK is beyond Modi’s control; and he does not want to be seento negotiate from a position of weakness. Kashmir solution is now, somehow,linked to Pakistan’s ability to help the US negotiate a peaceful exit fromAfghanistan. China and Turkey have also expressed their support toPakistan’s stance on Kashmir. Now, if Pakistan wins over Russia, it wouldresult in UNSC consensus as France and the UK would ultimately tow Americanline. Hence, chances of a multilateral negotiation mechanism under P-5umbrella would brighten.
Time is running out for India in the context of Kashmir issue, and indesperation, it could go to any length to regain the handle. Pakistan mustenhance its diplomatic effort to create compatible neutralizing pressure onIndia.
BY: Iqbal Khan