ISLAMABAD: The US-Israel military campaign against Iran has transformed Tehran into a fourth global power centre, challenging the post-World War II order built around Washington, Beijing and Moscow.

Iran has achieved this not through economic size or conventional forces but through iron control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this narrow chokepoint each day.

Since the surprise US-Israeli strikes began on 28 February 2026, Iran’s selective military blockade has slashed tanker traffic by more than 90 per cent.

Major shipping lines including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended operations while insurers have withdrawn coverage or imposed prohibitive premiums.

The International Energy Agency has described the disruption as the most acute supply shock in the history of the global energy market.

This collapse has ended decades of stable Gulf arrangements where Arab exporters shipped freely under American naval protection.

Export-dependent Gulf economies now confront immediate fiscal pain from halted revenues, soaring insurance costs and forced rerouting around Africa.

Analysts forecast that these states will eventually accommodate Iran to restore predictable export flows.

The power asymmetry favours Tehran heavily.

Allied navies must provide round-the-clock, expensive escorts against mines, drones and anti-ship missiles.

Iran merely needs occasional credible threats to maintain uncertainty and chaos.

Asia feels the hardest blow.
Japan, South Korea, India and China source the bulk of their energy from the Gulf and cannot reconfigure infrastructure overnight.

Higher costs, inflation, currency pressure and widening trade deficits are already forcing policy shifts toward energy security.

Western economies risk prolonged 1970s-style stagflation as oil prices surge into double-digit territory.

Iran stands as the undisputed winner, now acting as unchallenged gatekeeper of global energy arteries.

Russia gains from sustained higher and more volatile energy prices that bolster its revenues.

China can negotiate discounted or priority supplies while the West struggles.

These three powers require no formal treaty; their aligned incentives against Western stability are already redrawing the global map.

Darker scenarios are gaining traction among strategists.

A de-facto energy cartel spanning Iran’s 20 per cent share, Russia’s 11 per cent and China’s growing absorption capacity could withhold nearly 30 per cent of world oil from Western markets.

Such denial would trigger catastrophic decline in American and European influence.

Washington confronts an unenviable dilemma.

Acceptance would permanently install Iran as the fourth pole in a multipolar system.

Long-term military reassertion over the strait promises an expensive, open-ended conflict that history suggests the United States could lose.

No simple disengagement will restore the old status quo.

Any future accommodation with Tehran will prove costly yet far less expensive than allowing these structural changes to harden irreversibly over years.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz has handed Iran asymmetric leverage that undermines the foundations of the post-1945 energy order.

In this new world, reliable energy delivery, not merely GDP figures or military budgets, now defines great-power status.

The longer the conflict persists, the deeper this transformed multipolar architecture will embed itself.