So much for Prime Minister Imran Khan’s “New Pakistan.” Faced with growingdiscontent among his own lawmakers and allies, Khan told the president todissolve parliament and called for fresh electionslinkaftera hotly anticipated no confidence vote against him was abruptly canceledSunday.
“Prepare for elections,” Khan said in a televised speech to the nation. “Nocorrupt forces will decide what the future of the country will be,” hesaid, repeating the allegation that the U.S. is working with his rivals tooverthrow the government.
Drawing outrage from the opposition, which says it has the numbers to forcehim from office and take power, his move is now expected to be tested inSupreme Court. Opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif warned that Khan would becharged with treason for violating the constitution. It’s a well troddenpath in Pakistan, where high treason — and the death penalty that comeswith it — has been used against former military leaderlinkandpresident Pervez Musharraf (he lives in Dubai and has managed to escape theverdict handed down in 2019 that sentenced him to death.
Indeed, no Pakistani leader has served a full term in office, due toassassinations, martial law, votes of no confidence and arbitrarydismissals. Khan’s term, which began on in August 2018, isn’t due to enduntil August 2023. Had the trust vote gone ahead, he would have taken hisplace in that long list of failed prime ministers and presidents. It’slikely he still will.
One of the most telling moments in the weeks of turmoil that lead up to thecanceled vote happened Saturday, when the country’s powerful military chiefopenly criticized Russia for its war in Ukraine. General Qamar Javed Bajwasaid Moscow’s actions had resulted in a “great tragedy” that had killedthousands and made millions refugees, in a significant departure fromKhan’s more neutral tone. Khan visited President Vladimir Putin inMoscow the day Russia invaded its neighbor as part of a long-plannedoverseas mission.
Bajwa’s statements also appeared to be an attempt to reposition Pakistanback toward the U.S. — again, in obvious opposition to Khan. Pakistan seeksto broaden and expand relations with both China and the U.S.link,Bajwa said, without “impacting our relations with either.”
A former cricket great, Khan has gone from being seen as too close to themilitary, which has ruled Pakistan for nearly half its 75-year history, tonow falling outlinkwiththe organization widely viewed as the real power in the South Asian nation.Last week he blamed a “foreign funded conspiracy” for trying to remove himfrom power, tapping into a deep well of anti-U.S. sentiment that emerged inresponse to American foreign policy post-9/11. U.S. State Departmentspokesman Ned Price said there was “no truthlink”to the allegations.
Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Justice) party has 155 seats. With thehelp of coalition partners, he’s retained a slim majority of little morethan 172. The joint opposition of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’sPakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party run by BilawalBhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated former leader Benazir Bhutto, hasmore than 160 seats. They needed 172 votes in Pakistan’s 342-seatparliament to unseat the prime minister. If successful, it would have meantthe return to the dynastic politics that Pakistanis have grown so weary of.
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This continuing political instability will only worsen Pakistan’sprecarious economic position. There is significant pressurelink> on both itsforeign reserves and its currency (although not as severe as Sri Lanka’s,it’s enough to force its default risklinktosoar). Inflation, meanwhile, is running above 12% — way beyond the centralbank’s target range of 5%-7%. Khan put a $6 billion International MonetaryFund bailout in jeopardylink> last monthwhen he cut fuel and electricity prices after previously agreeing toincrease taxes as part of the IMF program. Khan’s promises to overhaulcorrupt institutions, fund affordable housing and create an Islamic welfarestate are now all but abandonedlink.
His government has also been grappling with a deteriorating securitysituation since the Taliban returned to power in neighboring Afghanistanlast August. That’s provoked a resurgence of militancy in Pakistan —including the bombing of a Shiite mosque in Peshawar last month claimed bythe local chapter of Islamic Statelinkthatkilled as many as 60 people and wounded almost 200.Opinion. Data. More Data.Get the most important Bloomberg Opinion pieces inone email.
Pakistan’s constitution calls for the establishment of an interimgovernment to take the country to the elections, which must be held within90 days. Khan may have dodged the vote of no confidence for now, but aGallup Pakistan poll taken in February showed his approval rating hadfallen to 36% from 40% in 2018, while Nawaz Sharif’s had more than doubledto 55%. As many as two dozen of his own lawmakers have turned against him,as has the army. Khan is in trouble, no matter which way you cut it.
The question now is how much unrest he and his opponents will incite beforeanother poll can be held or the Supreme Court can sit. Tens of thousands ofKhan’s supporters gathered in the capital Islamabad on March 26, whichfollowed a major anti-government rally weeks earlier. Expect more of this,and all the danger it brings. Pakistan’s 220 million citizens deservebetter.
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