ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has issued a stern warning of strong militaryretaliation if future terrorist attacks on its soil are traced back tosanctuaries in Afghanistan, according to insights from internationalsecurity analyses including reports from the International Crisis Group.This position comes against the backdrop of persistent threats from theTehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), whose activities have surged since theTaliban takeover in Kabul in 2021. Officials emphasise that verifiableevidence linking attacks to Afghan territory would trigger decisiveresponses, potentially including airstrikes or targeted operations, raisingfears of wider regional escalation in an already volatile border region.
The TTP has intensified its campaign inside Pakistan, carrying out numerousdeadly assaults on security forces, civilians and infrastructure. Data fromPakistani military sources indicate a sharp rise in terrorist incidents,with hundreds killed in recent years. The group, which operates from remoteareas along the porous Durand Line, exploits the lack of effective controlby Afghan authorities. International Crisis Group assessments highlight howthe Taliban’s reluctance or inability to curb TTP activities has deepenedIslamabad’s frustration, transforming diplomatic tensions into a cycle ofaccusations and sporadic clashes that threaten to spiral into open conflict.
Cross-border military actions have already occurred, as evidenced byPakistan’s airstrikes in October 2025 targeting TTP hideouts in Afghanprovinces such as Paktika, Khost and others. These operations followedmajor attacks attributed to the group, resulting in significant casualtieson both sides. Reports indicate that Pakistan captured multiple borderposts during subsequent engagements, claiming over two hundred militantsneutralised. Such incidents underscore Islamabad’s shift toward a moreproactive posture, moving beyond mere diplomatic protests to direct kineticmeasures when intelligence confirms Afghan-based threats.
The International Crisis Group has repeatedly warned about the dangers ofthis trajectory in its analyses of South Asian conflicts. In publicationscovering the Afghanistan-Pakistan dynamic, the organisation describes howunresolved grievances over militant safe havens fuel a dangerous escalationladder. Analysts note that while Pakistan seeks verifiable action fromKabul against TTP leadership and infrastructure, the Afghan Taliban viewssuch demands as infringement on sovereignty. This fundamental mismatch hasstalled multiple rounds of dialogue, with recent talks faltering amidcontinued skirmishes and accusations of mutual support for insurgents.
Security experts point to statistics showing TTP’s resurgence as a keydriver. Since 2021, the group has expanded its operational capacity,recruiting fighters and launching complex attacks deep inside Pakistaniterritory. Official figures reveal a multi-fold increase in violence inKhyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The group’s coordination withother factions and alleged tacit tolerance by elements in Afghanistancomplicate counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan maintains that withoutconcrete steps from Kabul, including dismantling camps and extraditing keyfigures, the security situation will continue deteriorating, justifyingpreemptive or retaliatory measures.
Diplomatic channels remain open but strained. Pakistan has deliveredmultiple demarches to the Afghan Taliban regime, urging immediate andverifiable actions against terror groups operating from its soil. In late2025, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reiterated offers for renewed peacetalks while condemning ongoing support for terrorism. However, incidents ofborder firing, drone strikes and militant infiltrations persist, erodingtrust. The International Crisis Group emphasises that both sides riskmiscalculation, where a major terrorist incident traced conclusively toAfghanistan could prompt large-scale Pakistani retaliation, potentiallydrawing in regional powers and destabilising the entire area.
The broader implications extend beyond bilateral relations. Escalationcould exacerbate humanitarian challenges, disrupt trade routes through theTorkham and Chaman crossings, and create new waves of displacement. Withmillions of Afghan refugees already affected by Pakistan’s repatriationpolicies, further conflict would compound regional instability.International observers, including the Crisis Group, call for sustainedinternational mediation to prevent a full-blown crisis, urgingconfidence-building measures such as joint border management andintelligence sharing.
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Pakistan’s declared policy reflects a calculated effort to deter futureattacks while preserving strategic options. By publicly articulatingthresholds for military action, Islamabad aims to pressure Kabul intocompliance. Yet the situation remains precarious, with each new terroristincident heightening the risk of confrontation. The coming months will testwhether diplomacy can prevail over the momentum of retaliation in thislong-standing security dilemma.
Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2026
Tags: Pakistan, Afghanistan, TTP, International Crisis Group, Durand Line
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