Already shaken by a fresh flare-up of violence, the fragile Afghan peaceprocess may face “problems” following the departure of US President DonaldTrump on Jan 20, experts believe.
They also argue that incoming President Joe Biden may seek a “review” ofthe Doha peace agreement between Washington and the warring Taliban, whichaims to bring an end to a 19-year conflict in the war-wracked country.
“The implementation of the Doha peace agreement could face problems,especially the deadline for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, asthe intra-Afghan dialogue is not really making progress and the violencehas intensified,” Rahimullah Yusufzai, a Peshawar-based expert on Afghanaffairs, told *Anadolu Agency*.
Citing fresh allegations and counter allegations by Washington and theTaliban with regard to a recent surge in violence despite a “commitment forpeace” from both sides, Yusufzai said the fresh developments could promptthe Biden administration to review the plans for a complete militarypullout from Afghanistan.
On Monday, Washington and the Taliban blamed each other for violating thepeace accord between the two sides ahead of the second round ofintra-Afghan peace talks in Doha, Qatar.
Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesperson, said US forces had conductedairstrikes against the group in non-military zones. He warned ofretaliation if the attacks do not stop.
Col. Sonny Leggett, a spokesperson for US forces in Afghanistan, termed theallegations as “false” and said the strikes were defensive and renewedcalls for all sides to reduce violence.
“The Taliban’s campaign of unclaimed attacks & targeted killings ofgovernment officials, civil society leaders & journalists must also ceasefor peace to succeed,” he said in a tweet.
Yusufzai observed that Biden might delay the full withdrawal or insist onkeeping a small number of troops on Afghan soil even after May on thepretext of “ensuring US security and the war against terrorism.”
Last November, Biden, according to the US media, had said he was “rightlyweary of our longest war in Afghanistan, but there was a need to end thewar responsibly, in a manner that ensures we both guard against threats toour homeland and never have to go back.”
In February last year, the Taliban reached an agreement with Washingtonpromising to end the lingering war in Afghanistan in exchange for securityguarantees. The agreement also guarantees the withdrawal of all foreigntroops from the war-torn country by May 2021.
“A circle within the Democrats does not want a complete pullout. They mayforce Biden to keep at least one or two bases in Afghanistan even afterMay,” Yusufzai said. “The surging violence in Afghanistan may give anexcuse to Biden to seek a review of the Doha agreement.”
Meanwhile, Kabul-based analyst and political commentator Syed Eqbal alsosees prospects of a shift – though not very drastic – in the US policytowards the Afghan peace process.
“There is no doubt that the ultimate thrust in Washington has shifted overthe years from defeating the Taliban on the battlefield to a so-called‘dignified’ exit from Afghanistan, but it [exit of forces from Afghanistan]is going to differ under the new president,” he told *Anadolu Agency*.
He added that the Afghan government under President Mohammad Ashraf Ghaniwould dearly want the Biden administration not to ‘rush’ with the exit.
*No total breakdown*
Salman Bashir, a former foreign secretary of Pakistan, does not see thereversal of the peace process despite the change of administration inWashington and looming challenges.
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“I think both Democrats and Republicans want to get out of Afghanistan.Biden has to embrace the geo-economic view of Afghanistan and this regionas there is no other feasible option, “ Bashir, who served as foreignsecretary from 2008 to 2012, told *Anadolu Agency*
“The alternative course would unravel prospects of peace and plunge thecountry into a civil war and de facto division,” he warned.
The US alone, Bashir noted, could not resolve the Afghan imbroglio andneeds to cooperate with Russia, China and other regional states for adurable settlement of the long-smoldering conflict.
Sharing a similar view, Yusufzai said: “I do not see a total reversal ofTrump’s withdrawal plans by the incoming president despite a surge inviolence. He cannot do that even if he wants because it [the Dohaagreement] was a popular move, and the US political and military leadershipby and large supported that.”
“The Taliban too want an end to the war,” he went on to say.
*What will Biden do?*
Jere Van Dyke, a New York-based security analyst and author, thinks it’s“too difficult” to forecast Biden’s strategy to deal with the ongoing peaceprocess.
“What will Biden do? No one outside of his inner circle knows,” Van Dyke,author of the bestsellers “In Afghanistan” and “Captive,” told *AnadoluAgency*.
“Trump is going, so what he thinks is not important. There are Democratswho do not want the US to leave, but what can they do to change theTaliban? Add more troops? That has not worked. Bombing them, as Trumpdid, had no effect. They will not give in, ever. So does the US,” said VanDyke, who was held captive by the Taliban in 2008.
He even appeared to be skeptical if Washington’s chief negotiator ZalmayKhalilzad will continue to work after Trump’s departure.
“I don’t think so, but I don’t know. [But] Khalilzad is not necessarilyrespected.”
Terming the role of Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia in the reconciliationprocess “crucial,” Van Dyke said: “The American people are tired of thewar. But the US military and maybe the CIA [can] be seen as losing the war.Much will depend upon what Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and Iran do, or agreeto do, to help the US in this regard.”
Referring to Russia’s role in Afghanistan, he said there are “responsible”Democrats and Republicans who understand that Moscow wants to get back intoAfghanistan.
“It will play fairly. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wants to get ridof the US presence in Afghanistan,” he contended. – Anadolu Agency
