Imran Khan is the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan among the 22 who losttheir job before completing their term. He even missed out on being amongthe three longest-serving prime ministers in the faux democracy, but not bymuch.
For elected prime ministers to be pulled down once or twice is bad enough.It happening 22 times back to back cannot be a coincidence. It is thegenerals telling the civilian government who is the boss.
The 18th Amendment of the Constitution passed in 2010 may have taken awaysweeping powers of the president to dismiss elected governments and foistmilitary rule, but the army and the secret service ISI still runs thenation in subtle yet powerful ways.
And that is not going to change in a hurry.
So, what do the bizarre and dramatic events in Pakistan portend for India?Well, one fact is not going to change in a long time: the gun will alwaysbe on every elected Pakistani government’s head and in the military’s hand.
If Pakistan gets a new government, India can expect changes, but those arelikely to be incremental and not sweeping. We cannot expect Pakistan’ssupport for terrorism or obsession with Kashmir to end overnight. Hatredfor Hindus and rejection of India are hard-coded in its DNA.
But given the state of the nation’s economy and foreign relations, one canexpect a more mellow and reconciliatory Pakistan in the short term.
Under a boisterous, narcissistic, and increasingly Islamist Imran Khan,Pakistan isolated itself from its traditional allies like the US, Saudi andUAE and became reliant on cynically exploitative China and a delusionalTurkey. As Khan kept blaming America and chasing Caliphate dreams, swathesof Arabia had started sailing on a rapid reform journey from their islandof orthodoxy. The US openly proclaimed that it no longer needed Pakistan todeal with the Taliban. It had Qatar to do that job, and better.
The world — even nations that hate a pompous America — doesn’t particularlylike China or Turkey. It likes China and Turkey’s self-destructive, littleattack dog even less.
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So, while Pakistan’s economy sank under Imran, hardly anybody came forward.Now, even the IMF has said it was waiting for a new government to take overbefore helping Pakistan. That new government and its military puppeteerswould certainly wish to win some friends back.
While Imran went out childishly blaming the US of an imagined “foreignconspiracy” to take him out, defence chief General Qamar Javed Bajwaimmediately reached out to America by denouncing Putin’s war in Ukraine.The army is likely to push any new government towards reconciliation withthe US and Arab allies like UAE and Saudi.
That could start taking Pakistan a bit away from China’s leash. Islamabaddoing less of Beijing’s bidding would always be good news in New Delhi.
Bajwa has also indicated that he wants to move ahead from Kashmir and wantsgood relations with India. In January, Pakistan’s National Security Policydocument made just a 113-word, perfunctory mention of Kashmir. With Imran’srepeated abusive tweets and statements about the BJP-RSS’s Hindutva out ofthe picture, the Pakistan military may have more legroom for back-channeltalks with India.
A new regime focused on fixing a moribund economy is unlikely todestabilise it further by triggering tension and skirmishes with India.Besides, India calling out Pakistan’s nuclear bluff with surgical strikesafter Uri and Pulwama has left Pakistan with very little bandwidth formisadventures anytime soon.
A reconciliatory regime in Islamabad may give New Delhi an occasion tobring up Pakistan’s support to Kashmir terrorists and attempts to reviveKhalistan from North American and European soil. Afghanistan may also be onthe menu.
A favourable regime change may reopen the backrooms, but it is unlikelythat India will rush to the table for formal talk anytime soon. Pakistantypically responds to warm hugs with a cold dagger, and history has taughtus to be very, very cautious.Source:link
