WASHINGTON: Defense and foreign policy experts cautioned againstrepercussions after the Trump administration on Thursday announced it washalting security aid to Pakistan for lack of cooperation in fightingterrorism, an allegation Islamabad has rejected out rightly.
A US State Department spokesperson told a briefing that the administrationwas suspending most of its security aid, but said that “there may be someexemptions that are made on a case-by-case basis if they’re determined tobe critical to national security interests”.
A report by the Washington Post, quoted unnamed officials as acknowledgingthat the suspension would have a mostly symbolic effect in the near term,but added that it was certain to “accelerate a downward trajectory” betweenthe two allies against terrorism.
“Even by the standard of the tumultuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship, thebrewing feud is unusually serious, with the potential to trigger abreakdown in ties that could threaten cooperation on intelligence, nuclearsafety and the war in Afghanistan,” the WP report said.
“The problem is that Pakistan is more likely to call it quits than do whatthe U.S. wants,” the report said quoting Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani scholarat the US Institute of Peace.
Pakistan has strongly denied US accusation of not taking action againstcertain terrorist groups as it is taking action against all terroristorganizations without any discrimination. It has also said that the US hasfailed to recognize the sacrifices it has made, and the colossal loss toits economy has suffered as a result of supporting the global fight againstterrorism.
“We don’t think you can explain away the whole Afghanistan imbroglio justby putting blame on Pakistan,” the WP report said quoting a recentinterview by Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Aizaz AhmadChaudhry.
The report noted that US aid flows to Pakistan have subsided in recentyears and while the country will lose out on millions of dollars it “isunlikely to have the impact it once would have” when the aid wassubstantially high.
“Pakistan’s increasingly close ties with China — including a newdevelopment deal worth more than $62 billion for infrastructure and energyprojects — might help soften the blow of censure from the United States,”the WP report said.
While suggesting that the Trump administration could consider furthermeasures, the report quoted experts who warned that additional US measuresmight prompt Pakistan to take “retaliatory action, possibly includingclosing road routes and airspace the United States relies on to support itscampaign in landlocked Afghanistan.
Pakistan in 2011 suspended access to routes the US used for supplies to itstroops in Afghanistan after a US air strike killed more than two dozentroops along the border with Afghanistan. The then US administration lateroffered apology for the incident.
The report quoted Sameer Lalwani, a senior associate at the Stimson Center,as saying that Islamabad could suspend cooperation in safeguarding itsnuclear program or sharing intelligence about terrorist groups.
“They have a lot of arrows in their quiver, as well,,,The worry is if westart going in this tit-for-tat cycle,” Lalwani was quoted as telling theWashington Post.
“The nationalist instinct that characterized the response to Trump’s tweetmay grow stronger as Pakistani politicians react to the suspension of aidand position themselves ahead of elections expected this summer,” thereport said.
Laurel E. Miller, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp and aformer top State Department official observed that the desire to pressurizePakistan might backfire. ““A punitive and shaming approach is unlikely toelicit greater cooperation from the Pakistanis because experience showsthat when cornered, their inclination is to dig in rather than to find somenew accommodation,” she said.
A separate report by the New York Times quoted Richard G. Olson, a formerspecial representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Obamaadministration, as saying that the American military effort in Afghanistanwas “heavily reliant” on Pakistan.
“Our choices in Afghanistan are already difficult, but if you want to makethem even more difficult, continue to taunt the Pakistanis,” Mr. Olson toldthe NYT. “The Pakistanis could effectively shut down the war,” he cautioned.