ISLAMABAD – There has been an uptick in speculation in recent weeks thatMoscow and Islamabad are in dialogue over an arms deal that would seePakistan procure significant amounts of Russian hardware, includingsurface-to-air missile systems and tanks.
Without either side saying much about the matter publicly, it is difficultto determine the pace of negotiations or the prospect of a deal beingsigned. Given the mounting speculation, however, it is worthwhile to reviewthe hurdles that an agreement would face, which might inform whether therumors will actually manifest in a deal.
In June 2014, Russia lifted its arms embargo on Pakistan. The embargo hadmostly precluded the arms trade between the two (with some exceptions).Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov, in announcing the move, noted at the timelink, “Such a decision has been taken. Weare holding talks on supplying the helicopters.” The two sides signed a defensecooperation pactlinkinNovember 2014 and, subsequently, a military-technical cooperation agreementlink. The Russian and Pakistanimilitaries held their first joint exerciselink inSeptember 2016 and, under an August 2018 agreementlink, Russia may provide military trainingfor Pakistani personnel.
Regarding arms trade, Pakistan purchased four Mi-35M attack helicopters,which arrived in the country last year and were commissioned into servicelinkwiththe Army in December. In its February 2019 edition, *AirForces Monthly*reportedthat a follow-on deal for five had been signed. Pakistan may ultimately beinterested in close to two-dozen of the helicopters.
There may be further sales down the road. In a recent analysis, the Russianthink tank Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST)indicated that, given Pakistani military requirements and assumingIslamabad turned to Moscow to fill them, the two could sign a $9 billiondeallink-.
This would dramatically dwarf the Mi-35M deal. Indian media, citing sourcesin the Indian Ministry of Defence, reported that a range of Russianequipment could be sold, such as Pantsir surface-to-air missiles and T-90main battle tanks.
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Before getting carried away with the recent reports, however, these detailsrequire qualifiers. It is certainly likely that Russia and Pakistan haveheld dialogue on a range of military equipment. In September 2016,Pakistani Maj. Gen. Naveed Ahmed, who heads the Directorate General ofDefence Purchase, told media at Russia’s ARMY-2016 exhibition that hiscountry’s military has shown “keen interest”link in Russian systems.
He added, “We are looking for the air platform, for any sorts ofhelicopters; for the Army we are looking for tanks, we are looking foranti-tanks weapon system[s] and, more importantly, we are looking for theair defense system.”
The Pakistani military spokesman, Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor, told Russianmedia in March of this year that dialogue continuedlink,naming air defense systems, aircraft, and anti-tank missiles as a focus forthe discussions.
Pakistan is known to be evaluating tanks in particular, and anti-tanksystems would help counter new tanks entering service with India. Airdefense systems remain a key prioritylink,particularly after the February 2019 standoff with India, which featuredboth sides delivering air strikeslinktothe other’s territory, the first instance of this dimension of warfarebetween the two since 1971. But whether Pakistan turns to Russia for theserequirements hinges on a number of factors.
