RIYADH – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has gained a reputation asa man of power since he has come to prominence in the Saudi Kingdom twoyears ago. The war in Yemen, the campaign against Iran and Iranian proxiesacross the Middle East, and the internal reforms have all showcased hisuncompromising stance on issues.
As India and Pakistan are currently facing each other in the most dangerousborder clashes over Kashmir in decades, the Saudi Crown Prince may be theman best placed to mediate between the two parties and broker a sustainablede-escalation.
The US traditionally played the role of the mediator, and it does seem thatthe State Department is actively working in the background to opencommunication channels between the two sides; however, despite theimprovement of relations between the US and India in recent years, the tiesare still not strong enough to de-escalate this situation. At the sametime, the US-Pakistan relations have weakened, as the latter has firmlymoved in China’s sphere of influence.
China also won’t be helpful in mediation attempts, considering its regionalrivalry with India. Delhi will have no trust in Beijing’s intentions andimpartiality in any process that the latter might organize.
As for Russia’s interjection in the crisis, it will likely be rebuffed byPakistan, owing to Moscow’s long-time close relationship with Delhi, whichdates back to the Cold War.
Iran, meanwhile, is a traditional foe to Pakistan, hence why Islamabadwould not sign up for anything that Tehran might offer.
That leaves the Saudi Kingdom as the only regional Asian power with ongoingwarm ties with both Pakistan and India. The Saudi-Pakistani relationshipgoes back decades, and it was the Saudis who helped Pakistan with financialassistance for its nuclear program when Islamabad developed its nucleararsenal in response to India’s successful nuclear arms project.
The Saudi-Indian relationship is more recent, but very important to bothsides, as they share the same concerns and interests when it comes toChinese and Iranian regional strategic agendas. Instead of affecting thehistoric Saudi-Pakistani ties, the new Saudi-Indian good relations arebeing perceived as positive for possible conflict resolution.
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Furthermore, the Saudis will only maintain this extraordinary position ofleverage and power if they are successful in maintaining the regionalbalance between India and Pakistan in South Asia, which means theirintentions can almost be trusted implicitly by both sides.
The opportunity to broker peace between two nuclear powers did not passMohammed bin Salman, who immediately despatched the Saudi Minister of Statefor Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, to Islamabad with an urgent messagefor the Pakistani government. The contents of the message are unknown, butsoon after the announcement of al-Jubeir’s despatch, Pakistan announcedthat it will hand over the captured pilot.
All diplomacy happens behind closed doors, but if the letter influenced thedecision of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, then this is a truetestament to how swiftly and efficiently Mohammed bin Salman is able tomaneuver in such a delicate situation.
It is yet to be determined if the Saudi Crown Prince could help inreturning the status quo and potentially improving the relationship betweenthe two countries. His success is imperative because war is in neitherparties’ interest.
By: Dr Azim Ibrahim
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