ISLAMABAD: In a significant geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa,Pakistan and Türkiye are reportedly accelerating joint defence cooperationto support Somalia’s armed forces amid growing influence of India andIsrael, particularly following Israel’s unprecedented recognition ofbreakaway Somaliland. This decision has alarmed Mogadishu and its allies,triggering a rapid response from Islamabad and Ankara. Analysts suggestthat Pakistan‑Turkey collaboration is aimed at containing the emergingIndia‑Israel‑Somaliland axis, which threatens regional stability andstrategic balances.
The India‑Israel connection in Somaliland is increasingly visible throughdiplomatic, military, and economic engagement. India has deepened its tieswith Somaliland’s self‑declared leadership under the pretext of trade andsecurity cooperation, while Israel provides strategic guidance, technologysupport, and military training. This partnership, some observers argue, isintended to establish a foothold in the Horn of Africa, close to criticalmaritime chokepoints, challenging Pakistan‑Turkish influence andpotentially undermining Somalia’s sovereignty and regional cohesion.
Somalia, lacking a robust multi-fleet air force, currently relies onTurkish‑supplied armed drones and a limited number of F‑16 fighter jets.Islamabad and Ankara view this as a strategic opportunity to bolsterMogadishu’s defence capabilities through cost-effective and modernplatforms. Talks are reportedly ongoing for Somalia to acquire PakistaniJF‑17 Thunder jets, which would enhance its air power and allow pre‑emptiveresponse against insurgencies or cross-border threats, while strengtheningSomalia’s position in the regional balance of power.
The military collaboration between Pakistan and Türkiye is not limited tohardware. Ankara has reportedly expressed willingness to donate olderfighter jets, such as F‑16 Block-30s and F‑4s, to Somalia, as newerindigenous Turkish aircraft are phased into service. Combined withpotential JF‑17 acquisitions, Mogadishu could operate multiple fightersquadrons alongside an expanding drone fleet, giving the Somali Air Forceunprecedented operational flexibility and a stronger deterrent postureacross the Horn.
The India‑Israel nexus, however, remains a central challenge to thisemerging alliance. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, coupled with India’seconomic and maritime engagement, is viewed by analysts as an effort toproject influence along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, countering Chineseand Pakistani interests. This cooperation may also involveintelligence-sharing, advanced surveillance technologies, and trainingprograms for Somaliland forces, which could tilt the regional balance ifunopposed.
Saudi Arabia’s role adds another strategic dimension. Riyadh has signaledstrong support for Somalia’s sovereignty while simultaneously strengtheningdefence ties with Pakistan. The Kingdom’s engagement, particularly inmilitary procurement and joint exercises, complements Pakistan‑Turkeyefforts, ensuring that Mogadishu’s armed forces have access to diversetechnology and logistical support to counter external influence from Indiaand Israel.
Analysts argue that Pakistan‑Turkey‑Saudi collaboration aims to create acredible deterrent against India‑Israel ambitions in the region. Byenabling Somalia to develop a balanced and capable air force and supportingcoastal security initiatives, this trilateral approach reinforces theprinciple of sovereign territorial integrity while signaling to New Delhiand Tel Aviv that unilateral maneuvers in the Horn will face strategiccounterweights.
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The unfolding developments highlight the intricate interplay between localconflicts and broader global strategic interests. The Horn of Africa, longsusceptible to internal political instability, is increasingly becoming atheater for extended rivalries involving South Asia, the Middle East, andwider international powers. Pakistan and Türkiye’s involvement maystabilize Somalia’s military capabilities, but it also raises the stakes inthe ongoing India‑Israel strategic maneuvering.
As talks progress and defence agreements are formalized, Somalia couldemerge with a sophisticated air capability comprising multiple fightersquadrons and an advanced drone fleet, bridging previous capability gaps.This transformation would allow Mogadishu to assert influence beyond itsborders while serving as a tangible counterweight to India‑Israelinfluence, reinforcing regional security for allied states and securingstrategic maritime routes.
Observers note that the India‑Israel‑Somaliland nexus is likely to escalatediplomatic tensions and potentially provoke competitive militarydeployments in the Horn. Pakistan‑Turkey cooperation, supported by SaudiArabia, is structured to preemptively mitigate these risks, offeringSomalia enhanced defence readiness and a framework for long-term securitycollaboration that preserves both regional stability and sovereignauthority.
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