For decades, Pakistan and Saudi Arabialink have boasted strongpolitical, economic, and security ties. The relationship has been furtherstrengthened by strong interpersonal connections between Saudi royals andPakistani civil-military elites. Yet, changing political dynamics in SouthAsia and the Middle East are increasingly complicating this relationship.
On the political level, the Saudi-Pakistani relationship has been built onnumerous interpersonal friendships link.In the past, the friendships between Saudi King Faisal bin Abdulaziz andPakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef andGeneral Mohammad Zia ul-Haq, and later King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz andPresident Pervez Musharraf strongly influenced the bilateral relationshipbut also political events within Pakistan reported the Arab Gulf StatesInstitute in Washington.
The countries also developed a close security partnership and, owing to theunique role of the military in Pakistani politics, it became a vitalstakeholder in the relationship with Saudi Arabia; the bilateralrelationship has historically been the strongest under military governmentlink inPakistan. Defense cooperation was formalized by a 1967 accord and thedispatch of Pakistani military and air force trainers to Saudi Arabia. Inthe aftermath of the Iranian Revolution, the security understanding betweenthe two sides was enhanced by the 1982 Protocol Agreementlink regardingthe “Deputation of Pakistani Armed Personnel and Military Training.” Thisresulted in the deployment of nearly 15,000 Pakistani troops to thekingdom. These troops remained in Saudi Arabia for the duration of theIran-Iraq War.
In practice, these deputations created a unique bond between the Pakistanisecurity institutions and Saudi royalty. This special relationship was ondisplay when Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz visitedlinkPakistan’s nuclearinstallations in 1999. As a relatively pro-Iran governmentlinkcameinto power in 2008 in Pakistan after the departure of Musharraf, themilitary became the principal interlocutor with Saudi Arabia.
This interplay between the civil-military elites in Pakistan and Saudiroyalty was visible after the bilateral relationship encountered a crisissparked when the Pakistani Parliament declinedlinkaSaudi request to send troops to Yemen in 2015 as part of Operation DecisiveStorm. The Saudis were particularly dismayed by the lack of support theyreceived from the government of then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who wastheir principal political clientlinkinPakistan for decades. The relationship improved due to the robustengagement of Pakistan’s military leadership and an increase in securitycooperationlink.Pakistan’s successive military chiefs developed a working relationship withthe new Saudi defense minister and, subsequently, crown prince, Mohammedbin Salman. When he stepped down from his position as Pakistan’s armychief, General Raheel Sharif assumed the leadershiplinkofthe Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition. He wassucceeded by General Qamar Javed Bajwa who had also served in Saudi Arabiafor three years. Bajwa has played a key rolelinkinnot only promoting Saudi-Pakistani defense ties but also rehabilitating thepolitical side of the partnership, making more than six trips to thekingdom. It was under his leadership that the Pakistani military dispatcheda composite brigadelinkof1,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. With 1,600 troops already deployed within thekingdom on a training and advisory mission, Pakistan became the onlycountry with a significant foreign force in Saudi Arabia.
But Saudi Arabia’s ties with Pakistan’s civilian leadership remainedstrained until Imran Khan became prime minister. Khan managed to establishclose ties with Mohammed bin Salman, and he participated in the 2018 FutureInvestment Initiative summit in Riyadh despite a global boycottlink following the killing ofSaudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The relationship reached a pinnacle whenMohammed bin Salman visited Pakistan in February 2019 and pledged to invest$21 billion link in projects,including the construction of an oil refinery in the port city of Gwadar.
This bilateral warmth started to give way to complications in the aftermathof India’s move in August 2019 to annul the special status of itsadministered state of Kashmir. Pakistan banked on the support of the globalIslamic fraternity against India, but the reaction from Saudi Arabialink was muted due to thekingdom’s economic ties with India. On the other hand, Turkey, whoserelationship with Saudi Arabia has become increasingly contentious, cameout strongly in supportlinkofPakistan’s position even when this came at the expense of Turkey’srelationship with India.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia approached the brink of a diplomatic crisis whenIslamabad agreed with Turkey and Malaysia to hold a summit of Islamiccountries in Kuala Lumpur to address issues concerning the Islamic worldlink.With the inclusion of Qatar and Iran in the platform, Saudi Arabiaincreasingly viewed the summit as a challenge to its leadership of theMuslim world and an alternative to the Saudi-led Organization of IslamicCooperation. Pakistani leaders seemed oblivious to these concerns and onlywithdrew from the event after Saudi Arabia directly communicated itsconcerns to Pakistani decision makers. This did ease tensions between thetwo sides and the Saudi foreign minister immediately visited Pakistan andcommitted to hold an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting on Kashmirlink. But the episode put a dent in thepersonal relationship between Khan and Mohammed bin Salman and they haven’tcommunicated publicly since Khan’s December 2019 visit to the kingdom.
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As ties with Saudi Arabia became tense, Pakistan’s relationship with Turkeyblossomed as did the personal chemistrylinkbetweenKhan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During his February visitto Pakistan, dubbed as a curtain raiserlink.bythe Pakistani foreign office, Erdogan appealed to Pakistanis when he spokeemphatically on Kashmir and declared it to be as important to Turkeylinkasit is to Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan also started broadcasting a Turkishtelevision series that depicted the events leading to the founding of theOttoman Empire. The show, laden with the theme of an Islamicawakening, has enthralledaudiences link across Pakistanbut, most importantly, has been actively patronized by Khan as well. Thecelebration of Ottoman legends and a TV show endorsedlink bythe Turkish president has not gone over well in Saudi Arabia, where it hasbeen bannedlink.
In the wake of these developments the relationship hit a new low when, inJuly, Saudi Arabia rescinded a support package it had given to Pakistan inearly 2019. This financial aid packagelinkincludeda $3 billion balance of payments loan and an additional agreement to deferoil payments for one year, valued at $3.2 billion, with a possible 3-yearextension. The balance of payments loan had been renewed in Januarylink,but in July Saudi Arabia demanded early repayment; Pakistan received $1billion from China and is in negotiations with the kingdom on the repaymentof the remainder. The deferred oil facility was not renewed after it expiredlinkinMay. This swift Saudi pullout from the economic assistance program forPakistan during the coronavirus pandemic spelled troubled for thepartnership.
Tensions increased when the Pakistani foreign minister lamented the lack ofSaudi support link on the Kashmir issue andsignaled that Pakistan might have to hold a meeting of like-minded powersoutside the ambit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
This latest fissure in Saudi-Pakistani ties should be seen in the contextof this breakdown in interpersonal connections between the leaders of eachcountry, a lack of any serious Saudi outrage over the Kashmir issue, andthe uptick in cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey. Still, it would beunwise to write an obituary for Saudi-Pakistani tieslink,which remain deeply rooted and multifacetedlink. Pakistan’s army chief, GeneralBajwa, recently visited the kingdom to stabilize the situation and put therelationship back on a mutually beneficiallink,but also realistic, pathway. Pakistan’s military spokesperson, in anattempt to limit the damage caused by the political leadership, alsostressed the unquestionable Saudi centralitylinktothe Muslim world. On the political front, Pakistani governmentrepresentatives and political and religious leaders have been meeting withthe Saudi ambassador in Islamabad to ease tensions. While thesedevelopments suggest that it is unlikely Pakistan will join anotherregional bloc, it is also unlikely that the structural reasons thattriggered the crisis will go away anytime soon. There might also be acivil-military divergence on the matter within Pakistan; Pakistan’s foreignminister called upon the Qatari envoy to Islamabad right when Bajwa wasmeeting Saudi officials in Riyadh.
Pakistan’s leadership is in a difficult position as the country has limitedleverage with Saudi Arabia and remains dependent upon Saudi economiclargesse and expatriate remittances. Pakistan’s balancing game in theMiddle East may no longer be a viable approach. With the rupture inpersonal ties between the Saudi crown prince and Pakistani prime minister,the Pakistani military will once again be the central player in thisrelationship.
