ISLAMABAD – Because of their often problematic relations, it is natural forIndia and Pakistan to seek divergent allies. In the Cold War era, theirchoices were apparent and easy. Pakistan joined two regional defense pactspatronized by the United States to contain communism.
India followed a non-aligned policy to begin with, but signed a Treaty ofPeace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1971. Indo-USrelations witnessed a brief period of warmth after the Sino-Indian War of1962, but Jawaharlal Nehru’s India did not want to be tagged to anysuperpower.
International relations are often dictated by the cold logic of nationalinterests and the balance of power. While Pakistan opted for allies in theWest, India chose the Soviet Union to balance the power of Chinalink . All that started changing afterthe disintegration of the Soviet Union and the rise of India as a regionalpower.
In 2008, India and the United States finalized a civil nuclear cooperationdeal and the superpower has since worked assiduously to get India covetedmembership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). This move has beensuccessfully countered by China link thusfar on the basis that Pakistan has identical credentials and should besimilarly treated by the NSG.
The year 2014 was seminal, as it was when these evolving equations came toassume definitive shapes. It was in this year that the USlink replaced Russia as India’s top armssupplier.
The same year, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu visited Pakistan andsigned a defense cooperation deal. This was the first such visit fromMoscow to Islamabad in 45 years. Both nations held military exercises in2016 and 2017, while Russia is currently building a 1,100 kilometer-longgas pipeline between Karachi and Lahore.
Pakistan’s relationship with China link isflourishing but Islamabad does not want to keep all its eggs in Beijing’sbasket, while Sino-Indian competition is likely to evolve into rivalry inthe not too distant future.
Some 63 percent of the total military hardware imported by Pakistan todaycomes from China link and only 19percent from the US link .
China link has also helped Pakistan inthe field of nuclear energy and was the first country to agree toco-produce advanced military aircraft and other weapons systems withPakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the flagship project ofChina’s major investments in many countries under its One Belt One RoadInitiative.
Tensions in the South China link Seahave increased CPEC’s importance for the Chinese and this $50 billion-plusinvestment in Pakistan stands out, as USlink annual assistance has shrunk to acouple of billion dollars. US link PresidentDonald Trump’s recent decision to suspend military assistance to Pakistanhas, therefore, not created too many ripples in Islamabad
This tough stance by the US link due tothe precarious security situation in Afghanistan may push Pakistan furthertoward China link and Russia. Allrecent US link presidents, including BillClinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, were India-friendly, but theymade it a point not to push Pakistan too hard.
That sanguine policy has unfortunately been abandoned by Trump. ThePakistani leadership does not want to keep all its eggs in the Chinesebasket, but the US link administration hasfailed to read that nuance of Pakistani thinking.
There can be no lasting peace in Afghanistan without Pakistan’sco-operation; therefore any further deterioration of Pak-US ties willimpact negatively on regional peace. Both Russia and Chinalink realize India’s importance andwant to keep it in good humor as much as possible.
The Kremlin played a key role in facilitating India’s entry into theShanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Similarly China, India’s majortrading partner, did not block a resolution in a BRICS meeting thatcondemned proscribed extremist groups in Pakistan. Beijing does not want topush India further under America’s wing.
By: Javed Hafeez