NEW DELHI – Last week, Pakistan Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa set off ona three-nation tour, beginning with Brunei, and then visiting Malaysia. Itwas his last stop though that India was watching with jangled nerves. OnFriday, Gen Bajwa landed in Malé, becoming the first high-ranking foreigndignitary to visit the Maldives since the imposition (and subsequentlifting on March 22) of the Emergency in that country.

Gen Bajwa met with President Abdulla Yameen, Foreign Minister Dr MohamedAsim, and other top officials, after which Yameen’s office issued aboilerplate statement — expressing a desire to “continue working togetheron issues of common concern”, while the General referred to their“brotherly Muslim nations… further cultivating existing ties of friendship,understanding, co-operation in all fields”.

But it was the signalling that was important.

For Yameen, hosting Gen Bajwa was a satisfying poke in India’s eye. For theGeneral, arguably the most powerful man in Pakistan, the stopover in SouthAsia’s currently most watched country was strategic move at a time thatPakistan is debating the “Bajwa Doctrine”.

In early March, Gen Bajwa briefed about 30 top Pakistani journalists for arecord four hours, a first since Gen Pervez Musharraf.

ARY TV reported there was no topic that he spared and no question that hedid not answer. The briefing, whose contents were summed up as the BajwaDoctrine, set off a storm of reactions — and as its intention and meaningwere debated, ISPR, the media wing of the Pakistan armed forces, was forcedto clarify and deny some parts.

Although Gen Bajwa was not directly quoted anywhere, a report in The Newson March 18 suggested he had said that while the Army did not wish toderail Pakistan’s civilian democracy, it would not stand by and watch ifpoliticians were unequal to the task. He had claimed credit for defusingthe crisis that had arisen out of the Barelvi extremist siege on Islamabad,and had said that if martial law were to be imposed on Pakistan,politicians alone would be responsible.

The General seems to have also come out backing the judiciary, which hasrecently been accused by the PML(N) and others of carrying out a campaignagainst a democratically-elected government — unseating Nawaz Sharif asPrime Minister, keeping alive the possibility of sending him and his familymembers to jail. Somewhat contradictorily, Gen Bajwa also praised thefarewell speeches by two PPP stalwarts who had warned against the military,and the “judicialisation of politics and politicisation of the judiciary”.

He had also spoken about the poor shape of the economy, criticisedPakistan’s massive social security scheme, and said civilian institutionssuch as the police must shape up.

Coming in an election year, Gen Bajwa’s meeting with the media was seen asan assertion of the Army’s predominant position in Pakistan; there was alsospeculation over his likely personal motivations. ISPR last week denied thereported statements on the 18th Amendment, and underlined that theso-called Bajwa Doctrine pertained only to security issues. “If thereexists any doctrine… it is only related to the security of Pakistan,” DG,ISPR Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor said.

What then is Bajwa’s vision for Pakistan’s peace and security? According tothe reports that emerged from the briefing, the Pakistan Army chief doesnot see his country in the “role of a hateful neighbour trying todestabilise others but establishing Pakistan as a proud, peacelovingcountry which wants peaceful coexistence with the world. But if provoked,threatened or pressurised, it will show its full muscle power to the enemyto prove its strong commitment to the motherland”.

Bajwa conveyed that while there would be no compromise on Kashmir, therecould be no war between nuclear-armed neighbours. He is reported to havesaid that the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modilink> was stubborn about nottalking, “but within two to three years due to its growing economy [India]will realise the need of a peace dialogue with Pakistan”.

He said that he wanted trade with India on the US-Canada model, and thatPakistan had no designs on Afghanistan on account of ‘strategic depth’, ifat all such a concept existed. He is reported to have said he wants peacewith both Afghanistan and Iran.

The General is also reported to have favoured non-confrontation anddialogue with the US to resolve thorny issues, but stressed that Pakistanwould not be intimidated by Washington, and would instead reach out toallies such as China and Saudi Arabia. He apparently expressed a desire fora “de-weaponised” Pakistan based on the Ireland model, in which allterrorist groups — without differentiating between good and bad — would bedisarmed and mainstreamed.

The dominant view in India sees the Bajwa Doctrine as a reiteration of thepre-eminence of the military in Pakistan. “It is déjà vu,” said RanaBanerji, a top Pakistan hand who retired as a Special Secretary in theCabinet Secretariat. “This kind of messaging has happened in the past, andhas been used by the military to destabilise the civilian leadership.” GenBajwa’s reported views on making peace with India are a “reiteration ofPakistan’s traditional position”, Banerji said. India, he said, wouldcontinue to be sceptical until Pakistan did something about theLashkar-e-Toiba/Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and Jaish-e-Muhammad, which remained activein Kashmir.

However, Bajwa’s views on the US, his advocacy of CPEC and frontloading ofthe relationship with China, and the stated desire for stability with bothIndia and Afghanistan, are also being seen as driven by the emerging bigpicture in the region and the world.

“This is a confluence of several geo-political factors in which many actorsare involved. It is predominantly driven by China which is re-positioningitself not just in the region but in the world,” said Happymon Jacob, whoteaches Indian foreign policy at Jawaharlal Nehrulink> University. “And theBajwa Doctrine is aligned to this big picture.” Bajwa’s visit to theMaldives, where China’s huge footprint has worried India, may anger NewDelhi, “but it is part of the emerging big picture, in which India is onlycollateral because it has no response yet to this big picture”, Jacob said.

Gen Bajwa visited Malé a week after Yameen lifted the 45-day Emergency. InFebruary, Yameen had sent his foreign minister to Pakistan to explain thereasons for imposing the Emergency. The envoy had invited Pakistan’s PrimeMinister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to visit, but Abbasi had reportedly refused,citing the similarities of Yameen’s action with those of Musharraf’s inNovember 2007. While the Prime Minister may remain constrained by the factthat judges and political leaders continue to be imprisoned in theMaldives, the Bajwa Doctrine clearly has different preoccupations, and isnot fettered by civilian sensibilities. – Indian Express

BY:nirupama.subramanian@expressindia.com