ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has in a very assertive way conveyed to India, throughits military response to aerial intrusions earlier this week, that limitedscale hostilities cannot be the ‘new norm’ between the arch rivalneighbours, but India is unlikely to change its course at least in the nearfuture.
This was the consensus among military experts at a roundtable on‘Escalation Management and Control between India and Pakistan’ organized byIslamabad Policy Institute (IPI), an Islamabad-based think tank.
The speakers included former Defence Secretary Lt. Gen (Retd) Asif YasinMalik, Advisor to Strategic Plans Division Amb Zamir Akram, former DefenceMinister Lt. Gen (Retd) Naeem Lodhi, Amb Ali Sarwar Naqvi and formerDirector General ACDA, Strategic Plans Division Khalid Banuri.
The speakers argued that Indian Prime Minister Modi was looking for apublic face saving before de-escalating the ongoing crisis with Pakistan.They, however, cautioned that there could be more Indian attempts aimed atsettling score with Pakistan’s military forces, which could furtherescalate tensions between the two nuclear armed neighbours.
Lt Gen Asif Yasin Malik said a climb down from the escalatory ladder wouldbe costly for Prime Minister Modi. Return of the Indian pilot was usefulfor building international image but, he opined, the gesture would notaffect Indian calculations regarding escalating or de-escalating tensions.
Speaking about the Indian-held Kashmir, Gen Malik said over 60 percent ofthe Kashmiri population was below the age of 35 years, which explained whythe youth were more unwilling to accept Indian tyranny and occupation.“Dynamics of Kashmir is in nobody’s control, it is on auto-pilot now.”
The crisis, he said, erupted after a Kashmiri boy attacked Indian occupyingforces in the Indian-held Kashmir. However, unfortunately it was being usedby the Indian leadership to divert the world’s attention from the Kashmirissue and bolstering BJP’s re-election prospects, the general said.
The former Defence Secretary, while speaking about the current escalation,said a state had to plan for both escalation and de-escalation, and poorplanning for any of the two scenarios could lead to war.
Ambassador Zamir Akram stressed the need for escalation management andcontrol to ensure that nuclear deterrence was maintained. He emphasizedthat de-escalation was only possible once both adversaries had a commoninterest in de-escalation and unilateral measures aimed at de-escalationwould not work. He identified rationality, signaling, transparency andcredibility as key factors influencing the crisis management.
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He said credibility of deterrence was essential for de-escalation. In theprevious crises, he recalled, Pakistan and India exercised self-imposedrestraint even when they had not tested the nuclear weapons. Now that bothneighbours were nuclear powers, the situation demanded much more care,caution and responsibility from both states as well as a greater role ofinternational community to timely defuse the situation.
It was stated that credibility of the crisis manager is critical for bothsides. Helping India and Pakistan timely de-escalate the ongoing tensionsis a test of the US credibility as a crisis manager. During the 1990crisis, Robert Gates helped diffuse the South Asian crisis. However, in thepresent situation it remains to be seen whether the US is part of theproblem or solution or both.
In response to a question about next possible steps towards de-escalation,the speakers said restrictions on the individuals demanded by India andmeeting some of the requirements of demarche shared by New Delhi couldallow Indian political leadership to save face before its voters andde-escalate.
Former Defence Minister Lt Gen (Retd) Naeem Lodhi warned about Indianmilitary attempting more mischief in future. He, therefore, advisedcontinued vigilance.
Khalid Banuri said the current crisis was a test of diplomacy. Pakistanidiplomats must internationally highlight the Indian violation of the UNCharter, instigating an unprovoked international armed conflict and graveviolations of the UN resolutions.
Defence analyst Syed Muhammad Ali said that Pakistan had simultaneouslydemonstrated resolve and capability along with restraint in its calculateduse of force. The Pakistan Air Force could have caused much greatersurprise but restrained itself because it only aimed at dissuading Indiafrom any future misadventure.
