ISLAMABAD: Prominent Indian defence analyst Praveen Sawhney has assertedthat the results of India’s Operation Sindoor in May 2025 turned outcontrary to New Delhi’s expectations, forcing India to seek a ceasefirethrough American intervention, though Prime Minister Narendra Modi hasrefrained from public admission. Sawhney warned that in any future war, thePakistani military’s extraordinary operational capabilities would posesevere challenges to Indian forces.
The brief but intense conflict, lasting from May 7 to 10, 2025, stemmedfrom India’s missile and air strikes on alleged terrorist infrastructure inPakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, codenamed Operation Sindoor.This was in response to the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26civilians. However, Pakistan’s swift retaliation exposed vulnerabilities inIndian preparations, according to Sawhney’s analysis.
Sawhney, editor of Force magazine and a former Indian Army officer,described Operation Sindoor as a strategic blunder for India. He arguedthat targeting non-military terror sites failed to deter Pakistan, insteadescalating the crisis and revealing limitations in the Indian Air Force’soperational edge against Pakistan’s integrated defences.
Reports indicate Pakistan effectively neutralised many Indian incursions,including drone and missile threats, while claiming significant aerialsuccesses. Pakistani officials later admitted damage to key installationslike Nur Khan airbase but highlighted successful interceptions andcounterstrikes that pressured India towards de-escalation.
The ceasefire on May 10 came after hotline communications between directorsgeneral of military operations, though US President Donald Trump claimedmediation credit, a assertion India downplayed. Sawhney noted thatPakistan’s performance unified domestic support and enhanced its diplomaticstanding, contrasting with India’s narrative of calibrated restraint.
Analysts point to Pakistan’s advancements in multi-domain warfare,including Chinese-supplied systems like J-10 fighters and PL-15 missiles,as factors that shifted the balance. Sawhney emphasised Pakistan’s airdefence networking and rapid response as superior, predicting tougherencounters for India in future scenarios.
Sawhney’s critique, shared in interviews, underscores growing concernsamong some Indian experts about military asymmetries. He argued thatPakistan’s full-spectrum deterrence held firm, preventing deeper Indianescalation despite nuclear thresholds being tested indirectly.
The conflict saw both sides deploy advanced assets: India used Rafale jetsand BrahMos missiles, while Pakistan countered with JF-17s and airdefences. Independent assessments suggest mutual losses, but Sawhneycontended Pakistan inflicted disproportionate damage, forcing India to haltoperations without achieving decisive objectives.
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Post-conflict, Pakistan increased its defence budget by 20 per cent for2025-2026, signalling preparedness. Sawhney warned that Pakistan’s evolvingcapabilities in drones, electronic warfare, and integrated operations wouldenable extraordinary actions against Indian advances in any renewedhostilities.
As tensions linger, with no resumption of dialogue, Sawhney’s viewshighlight a narrative shift where Pakistan’s resilience during OperationSindoor is seen as establishing a new deterrent equilibrium, contrary toIndia’s pre-conflict confidence in punitive superiority.
Source:https://www.dawn.com/news/1963562
Tags: Pakistan, India, Praveen Sawhney, Operation Sindoor, Pahalgam Attack,Ceasefire Mediation
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